Bombers. Combating Terrorism Center at West Point. Retrieved October 19,. 2020, from ctc.usma/app/uploads/2017/08/. ExplodingStereotypes-1.pdf.
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SPECIAL THANKS to the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START), a Department of Homeland Security Center of Excellence led by the University of Maryland, for their cooperation on this study and for providing the Institute for Economics and Peace with their Global Terrorism Database (GTD) datasets on terrorism.Y Quantifying Peace and its Bene˜itsThe Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) is an independent, non-partisan, non-pro˜it think tank dedicated to shifting the world™s focus to peace as a positive, achievable, and tangible measure of human well-being and progress.IEP achieves its goals by developing new conceptual frameworks to de˜ine peacefulness; providing metrics for measuring peace; and uncovering the relationships between business, peace and prosperity as well as promoting a better understanding of the cultural, economic and political factors that create peace.IEP is headquartered in Sydney, with of˜ices in New York, The Hague, Mexico City, Brussels and Harare. It works with a wide range of partners internationally and collaborates with intergovernmental organisations on measuring and communicating the economic value of peace.For more information visit www.economicsandpeace.orgPlease cite this report as: Institute for Economics & Peace. Global Terrorism Index 2020: Measuring the Impact of Terrorism, Sydney, November 2020. Available from: http://visiono˜humanity.org/reports (accessed Date Month Year).
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GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX 2020 | 1Section 2: Economic Impact of Terrorism 30Economic Impact by Country and Region 32Case Study: The Economic Impact of Terrorism in Africa 34Estimating the Economic Impact of Terrorism 39Section 3: Trends in Terrorism 40Regional Trends 43Section 4: The Shifting Landscape of Terrorism 52The Rise, Fall and Shift of ISIL 53Far-right Terrorism and Political Violence 6067687176Section 1: Results 8Global Terrorism Index Map 8Terrorist Incidents Map 10Terrorism in 2019 12Terrorist Groups 14Ten Countries Most Impacted by Terrorism 18Covid-19 and Terrorism 29Executive Summary & Key Findings 2About the Global Terrorism Index 6Contents Section 5: Terrorism nd Systems Theory Correlates of Terrorism The Impact of 9/11 on the US Socio-Economic System Disrupting Terrorist Groups and Networks Expert Contributions 79Ł The Hybridisation of Security Challenges in Contemporary Africa 80 Dr Dêlidji Eric Degila, Senior Researcher and Adjunct Faculty, The Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies (IHEID), Geneva ŁTerrorism and Security Impact Bonds 83Rt. Hon the Lord Browne of Ladyton Sir Adam Thomson, Director, European Leadership Network Ben Challis, Policy Fellow, European Leadership Network ŁHow have Terrorist Organisations Responded to Covid-19? 86 Milo Comerford, Senior Policy Manager, Institute for Strategic Dialogue Ł Terrorism and Peace in Afghanistan 89 Michael Semple, Professor, The Senator George J. Mitchell Institute for Global Peace, Security and Justice, Queen™s University, Belfast Appendices 92Endnotes 102
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GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX 2020 | 2Executive Summary The GTI report is produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) using data from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) and other sources. Data for the GTD is collected and collated by the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) at the University of Maryland. The GTD contains over 170,000 terrorist incidents for the period 1970 to 2019. In 2019, deaths from terrorism fell for the ˜ifth consecutive year, after peaking in 2014. The total number of deaths fell by 15.5 per cent to 13,826. The fall in deaths was mirrored by a reduction in the impact of terrorism, with 103 countries recording an improvement on their GTI score, compared to 35 that recorded a deterioration. The full GTI score takes into account not only deaths, but also incidents, injuries, and property damage from terrorism, over a ˜ive-year period. The largest fall in the impact of terrorism occurred in Afghanistan, which recorded 1,654 fewer deaths from terrorism in 2018, a 22.4 per cent decrease from the prior year. However, Afghanistan remains the country most impacted by terrorism, after overtaking Iraq in 2018. Nigeria recorded the second largest reduction in deaths from terrorism in 2019, with the number falling from 2,043 to 1,245, a 39.1 per cent reduction, which was mainly due to a fall in terrorism deaths attributed to Fulani extremists. This reduction occurred despite a small increase in deaths attributed to Boko Haram, which has the been the most active terrorist group in the country over the past decade. Deaths from terrorism in Nigeria are now 83 per cent lower than at their peak in 2014. Con˜lict remains the primary driver of terrorism, with over 96 per cent of deaths from terrorism in 2019 occurring in countries already in con˜lict. The ten countries with the highest impact of terrorism are all engaged in at least one armed con˜lict.Despite the overall fall in the impact of terrorism across the world, it remains a signi˜icant and serious problem in many countries. There were 63 countries in 2019 that recorded at least one death from a terrorist attack and seventeen countries that recorded over 100 deaths from terrorism. However, only Afghanistan and Nigeria recorded over 1,000 deaths and both countries had signi˜icant reductions in the number of people killed in 2019. By contrast, in 2015 there were six countries that recorded over a thousand deaths from terrorism. ISIL™s strength and in˜luence continued to decline, with deaths attributed to the group in 2019 falling to 942, down from 1,571 in the previous year. This is the ˜irst time since the group became active in 2013, that it was responsible for less than a thousand deaths from terrorism in any one year. T he number of terror ist attacks attributed to the group also fell to the lowest level since it was formed, with 339 incidents attribut ed to the gro up in 2019. However, despite the decrease in activity from ISIL in the Middle East and North Africa, ISI L™s a˚iliate groups rema in active across the world, and have become es pecially prominent in sub-Saharan Africa where deaths attribut ed to ISIL a˚iliates increased. Twenty-seven countries experie nced a terror ist attack caused by ISIL or one of its a˚ilia tes. The expansion of ISIL a˚iliates into sub-Saharan Africa le d to a surge in terrorism in many countries in the region. Seve n of the ten countries with the largest increase in terrorism were in sub-Saharan Africa: Burkina Faso, Mozambique, Democ rati c Re public of Congo (DRC), Mali, Niger, Cameron and Ethiopia. Thes e countries are also facing various ecological threat s, are amongst the countries with the highest population growth and su˛e r from low s ocietal resilience. The largest increase in deaths from terrorism occ urred in Burkina Faso, where deaths rose from 86 to 593, a 590 per cent increase. The rise was mainly driven by three groups : the Islamic State in Greater Sahara (ISGS), Jamaat Nusrat al -Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) and the Burkina Faso branch of Ans ar al-Islam.Sri Lanka recorded the second largest increase in 2019, with the Easter Sunday bombings accounting for the entirety of this increas e. Sri Lanka recorded the deadliest attack of 2019 wh en eight coordinated suicide attacks across the country targeted churc hes and hotels on Easter Su nday, kil ling 266 people and injuring at least 500. ISIL claimed responsibility for the atta ck, with the perpetrators pledging allegiance to former ISIL-leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi online. South Asia re mains the region most impacted by terrorism in 2019, des pite the improvements in Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. This is the second year in a row that S outh Asia has record ed more deaths from terrorism than any other reg ion.ISIL™s shift to sub-Sa hara n Africa meant that the region record ed the second highest number of terrorism deaths, eve n aft er accounting for the substantial fall in Nigeria. Deaths attributed to ISIL a˚iliates in the region were recorded as far south as Mozambique and 41 per cent of all ISIL-related at tacks in 20 19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa. Terrorism comes with a heavy ˜inancial cost. The global economic impact of terrorism was US$6.4 billion in 2019, 25 per cent lower than in 2018. Whilst this ˜igure is a small This is the eighth edition of the Global Terrorism Index (GTI). The report provides a comprehensive summary of the key global trends and patterns in terrorism over the last 50 years, placing a special emphasis on trends over the past decade. This period corresponds with the rise and fall of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
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GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX 2020 | 3percentage of the total impact of violence on the global economy, it should be noted that the ˜igures for terrorism are highly conservative as they do not account for many items, including the indirect impacts on business and investment, insurance costs, lost opportunity and the costs associated with security agencies in countering terrorism. One of the more worrying trends in the last ˜ive years is the surge in far-right political terrorism, even though the absolute number of far-right attacks remains low when compared to other forms of terrorism. In North America, Western Europe, and Oceania, far-right attacks have increased by 250 per cent since 2014, with deaths increasing by 709 per cent over the same period. There were 89 deaths attributed to far-right terrorists in 2019, with 51 of those occurring in the Christchurch mosque attacks in New Zealand. There have been over 35 far-right terrorist incidents in the West every year for the past ˜ive years. Far-right terrorism tends to be more lethal than far-left terrorism, but not as lethal as Islamist terrorism in the West. There have been 13 far-right terrorist attacks that have each killed more than ten people over the past 50 years, compared to 24 Islamist attacks, and three from other ideologies. Far-right terrorism is also more likely to be carried out by individuals una˚iliated with a speci˜ic terrorist group. Nearly 60 per cent of far-right attacks from 1970 to 2019 were carried out by una˚iliated individuals, compared to under ten per cent for both far-left and separatist terrorist groups. There are some signs that political violence is becoming more publically acceptable, as the level of polarisation in society continues to rise. In the US, where the majority of far-right terrorism has taken place, nearly 40 per cent of both Democrat and Republican poll respondents in 2020 felt that violence for political ends was at least partially justi˜iable, up from less than ten per cent just two and half years earlier. Social and political instability has also been on the rise in the West, even prior to the widespread demonstrations seen in 2020. Nearly 70 violent demonstrations were recorded in the West in 2019, compared to 19 in 2011. The rise in far-right terrorism comes at a time when Positive Peace is declining in many Western countries. The US had one of the largest deteriorations in Positive Peace, with its score deteriorating by 6.7 per cent over the past decade. If the deterioration in Positive Peace in the West continues unchecked over the coming years, the background conditions are set for further social discontent, which may increase the likelihood for violence and terrorism. The report also looks at the application of systems thinking to terrorism, using mainly statistical techniques and mathematical models to better understand the dynamics of terrorism and its subsequent impact on society. Terrorist groups ˜lourish when they can increase their in˜luence. The major drivers of in˜luence are media coverage, recruitment of sympathisers, and ˜inances. All of these di˛erent facets need to be tackled together to break up terrorist organisations. There are many socio-economic factors that are associated with terrorism that are common to all countries. However, there are also notable di˛erences between economically developed and developing countries. Some socio-economic factors associated with terrorism include: Ł High levels of group grievance and a weak rule of law is correlated with terrorism across all countries. Ł In the more economically developed countries, social disenfranchisement and exclusion play an important role in terrorism. Ł In less economically developed countries, religious or ethnic ruptures, and corruption are more strongly associated with high levels of terrorism. As the threat of terrorism continues to change, policymakers need to be aware of novel approaches to counter-terrorism. The European Leadership Network is developing the concept of social impact bonds in relation to terrorism, with a particular focus on securing dangerous materials that could be used in sophisticated terrorist attacks, such as radioactive medical waste. There are already over 100 development or social impact bonds globally, but to date they have not been used for security purposes. An expert contribution in this edition of the GTI looks in detail at the prospect of using social impact bonds in counter-terrorism.
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GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX 2020 | 4Results Deaths from terrorism fell for the ˜ifth consecutive year in 2019 to 13,826 deaths, representing a 15 per cent decrease from the prior year. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA), Russia and Eurasia, South America and South Asia regions all recorded falls in deaths from terrorism of at least 20 per cent.Although terrorism has fallen in most regions, it has become more widespread in others. Seven of the ten countries with the largest increase in terrorism were in sub-Saharan Africa. Burkina Faso had the largest increase in terrorism, where deaths increased by 590 per cent to 593. This was followed by Sri Lanka where terrorism deaths increased from one in 2018 to 266 in 2019. Afghanistan remains the country with the highest impact from terrorism. However, terrorism deaths in the country declined in 2019 for the ˜irst time in three years. The Taliban remained the world™s deadliest terrorist group in 2019. However, terrorist deaths attributed to the group declined by 18 per cent to 4,990. Whether the peace talks in Afghanistan have a substantial impact on terrorist activity remains to be seen. Trends In Terrorism Deaths from terrorism are now 59 per cent lower than their peak in 2014. The fall in deaths has been largest in Iraq, Syria and Nigeria. The overall fall in deaths from terrorism has also led to a reduction in the number of countries experiencing deaths from terrorism. In 2019, 63 countries recorded at least one death from terrorism, the lowest number since 2013. The impact of terrorism lessened in seven of the nine regions of the world in 2019. South Asia recorded the largest deterioration, followed by Central America and the Caribbean. However, Central America and the Caribbean remains the region with the lowest impact of terrorism, a position it has held for the past 17 years. MENA recorded the largest regional improvement for the second consecutive year. Deaths in MENA have fallen by 87 per cent since 2016, reaching the lowest level since 2003. More recently, terrorist activity has been concentrated in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa with both regions having recorded more terrorism deaths than MENA since 2018. Economic Impact Of Terrorism The global economic impact of terrorism in 2019 amounted to US$26.4 billion, a fall of 25 per cent from 2018. This was mainly driven by a fall in terrorism deaths in the Middle East and North Africa. The economic impact of terrorism has fallen each year for the last ˜ive years. It is now 77 per cent lower than at its peak in 2014. Afghanistan was the country with the highest economic impact, equivalent to 16.7 per cent of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Nine of the ten countries with the highest economic impact of terrorism su˚er from ongoing con˜lict. Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia have the highest Key Findings regional economic impact, at US$12.5 and US$5.6 billion, respectively. North America had the largest regional percentage increase in its economic impact, increasing by 44.9 per cent from the previous year, owing largely to an increase in far-right terrorism.
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GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX 2020 | 6About the Global Terrorism Index Given the signi˜icant resources committed to counter terrorism by governments across the world, it is important to analyse and aggregate the available data to better understand its various properties. Examples of the information contained in this study are: Ł The di˛ering socio-economic conditions under which it occurs. Ł The longer term trends and how terrorism changes over time. Ł The geopolitical drivers associated with terrorism and ideological aims of terrorist groups. Ł The types of strategies deployed by terrorists, their tactical targets and how these have evolved over time. In this context, one of the key aims of the GTI is to examine these trends. It also aims to help inform a positive, practical debate about the future of terrorism and the required policy responses. The GTI is based on the Global Terrorism Database (GTD); the most authoritative data source on terrorism today. The GTI produces a composite score so as to provide an ordinal ranking of countries on the impact of terrorism. The GTD is unique in that it consists of systematically and comprehensively coded data for 170,000 terrorist incidents. The GTI was developed in consultation with the Global Peace Index Expert Panel. The GTI scores each country on a scale from 0 to 10; where 0 represents no impact from terrorism and 10 represents the highest measurable impact of terrorism. Countries are ranked in descending order with the worst scores listed ˜irst in the index. De˜ining terrorism is not a straightforward matter. There is no single internationally accepted de˜inition of what constitutes terrorism and the terrorism literature abounds with competing de˜initions and typologies. IEP accepts the terminology and de˜initions agreed to by the GTD and the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START). The GTI therefore de˜ines terrorism as ‚the threatened or actual use of illegal force and violence by a non˝state actor to attain a political, economic, religious, or social goal through fear, coercion, or intimidation.™ This de˜inition recognises that terrorism is not only the physical act of an attack but also the psychological impact it has on a society for many years after. Therefore, the index score accounts for terrorist attacks over the prior ˜ive years. In order to be included as an incident in the GTD, the act has to be ‚an intentional act of violence or threat of violence by a non-state actor.™ This means an incident has to meet three criteria in order for it to be counted as a terrorist act: 1. The incident must be intentional – the result of a conscious calculation on the part of a perpetrator. 2. The incident must entail some level of violence or threat of violence – including property damage as well as violence against people. 3. The perpetrators of the incidents must be sub-national actors. This database does not include acts of state terrorism. In addition to this baseline de˜inition, two of the following three criteria have to be met in order to be included in the START database from 1997: Ł The violent act was aimed at attaining a political, economic, religious or social goal. Ł The violent act included evidence of an intention to coerce, intimidate or convey some other message to a larger audience other than to the immediate victims.Ł The violent act was outside the precepts of international humanitarian law. In cases where there is insu˚icient information to make a de˜initive distinction about whether it is a terrorist incident within the con˜ines of the de˜inition, the database codes these incidents as ‚doubt terrorism proper™. In order to only count unambiguous incidents of terrorism, this study does not include doubted incidents. It is important to understand how incidents are counted. According to the GTD codebook ‚incidents occurring in both the same geographic and temporal point will be regarded as a single incident but if either the time of the occurrence of the incidents or their locations are discontinuous, the events will be regarded as separate incidents. Illustrative examples from the GTD codebook are as follows: Ł Four truck bombs explode nearly simultaneously in di˛erent parts of a major city. This represents four incidents. Ł A bomb goes o˛ and while police are working on the scene the next day, they are attacked by terrorists with automatic weapons. These are two separate incidents as they were not continuous given the time lag between the two events. The Global Terrorism Index (GTI) is a comprehensive study analysing the impact of terrorism for 163 countries covering 99.7 per cent of the world™s population.
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GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX 2020 | 7Ł A group of militants shoot and kill ˜ive guards at a perimeter checkpoint of a petroleum re˜inery and then proceeds to set explosives and destroy the re˜inery. This is one incident since it occurred in a single location (the petroleum re˜inery) and was one continuous event. Ł A group of hijackers diverts a plane to Senegal and, while at an airport in Senegal, shoots two Senegalese policemen. This is one incident since the hijacking was still in progress at the time of the shooting and hence the two events occurred at the same time and in the same place. fiDe˜ining terrorism is not a straightforward matter. There is no single internationally- accepted de˜inition of what constitutes terrorism, and the terrorism literature abounds with competing de˜initions and typologies.fl
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GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX 2020 | 81Afghanistan 9.592 2Iraq 8.682 3Nigeria8.314 4Syria 7.778 5Somalia7.645 16Yemen 7.581 17Pakistan 7.541 28India7.353 9Democratic Republic of the Congo7.178 110Philippines 7.099 111Mali7.049 212Burkina Faso 6.755 1513Cameroon 6.627 114Egypt6.419 315Mozambique 6.400 816Libya 6.250 417Central African Republic 6.241 218Turkey 6.110 219Colombia6.100 20Sri Lanka 6.065 3521Thailand5.783 322South Sudan 5.726 523Kenya 5.644 224Niger5.617 225Myanmar 5.543 126Sudan 5.401 627Nepal5.340 728Ethiopia5.307 29United States of America5.260 230United Kingdom 5.161 431Palestine 5.077 132Saudi Arabia 5.000 333Bangladesh 4.909 334Chad4.829 435Burundi4.702 236Ukraine 4.692 1137Indonesia 4.629 238France 4.614 239Russia 4.542 240Israel 4.522 41South Africa4.358 42New Zealand 4.337 7943Mexico 4.316 544Greece 4.182 245Tajikistan 4.180 646Iran 4.157 747Chile4.031 248Germany 3.965 449Tunisia 3.858 150Rwanda 3.754 1651Lebanon 3.661 852Venezuela 3.658 553China3.587 1154Angola3.429 255Uganda 3.278 656Canada 3.171 357Jordan 3.149 558Tanzania 3.112 2=59 Belgium3.043 6=59 Italy 3.043 361Sweden 2.892 562Ireland 2.845 763Spain2.810 464Bolivia2.795 665Algeria2.696 866Netherlands2.689 1167Ecuador2.606 6=68 Brazil 2.443 6=68 Zimbabwe 2.443 170Paraguay 2.414 671Bahrain 2.402 10=72 Haiti2.355 6=72 Nicaragua 2.355 874Australia 2.148 275Peru 2.141 876Malaysia 2.090 577Republic of the Congo2.043 778Honduras 2.023 2079Japan2.014 180Cote d’ Ivoire 1.945 681Kuwait 1.795 582Ghana1.743 483Finland 1.721 3THE IMPACT OF TERRORISM 0108642NOT INCLUDED VERY HIGH HIGHMEDIUMLOWVERY LOW NO IMPACT 2020 GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEXMEASURING THE IMPACT OF TERRORISM RANKCOUNTRY SCORERANK CHANGERANKCOUNTRY SCORERANK CHANGERANKCOUNTRY SCORERANK CHANGE
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GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX 2020 | 984Malawi 1.635 1985Denmark1.484 1586Gabon1.43 1887Norway 1.297 4088Madagascar1.19 789Costa Rica 1.066 7490Argentina 1.024 891Austria 1.016 892Kyrgyz Republic 0.95 893Kazakhstan 0.901 894Papua New Guinea 0.691 6=95Albania0.677 13=95Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.677 9=97 Benin0.663 65=97 Guatemala0.663 899South Korea 0.656 15100Georgia 0.635 11101Taiwan 0.607 6102Morocco 0.565 11103 Hungary 0.551 15104 Armenia0.53 11105Guyana 0.477 26106Laos0.439 12=107 Montenegro 0.42 11=107 Vietnam 0.42 11109 Guinea 0.41 10110 Senegal0.391 18111Czech Republic 0.315 10112 Azerbaijan 0.296 10113 Switzerland 0.286 3114 Poland 0.239 9=115 Jamaica0.229 11=115 Lithuania0.229 9=115 Sierra Leone0.229 9118 Liberia0.191 7119Bulgaria0.172 9120 Trinidad and Tobago0.162 15121Zambia0.153 9=122 Latvia0.115 6=122 Cyprus0.115 8124 North Macedonia0.105 11125Uruguay 0.086 5=126 Estonia0.057 4=126 Moldova 0.057 4=126 Serbia0.057 4129Lesotho 0.048 3130Djibouti0.038 19131 Slovakia 0.029 3132Panama 0.019 1133 Qatar 0.014 134 Uzbekistan 0.010 1=135Belarus0.000 =135Bhutan 0.000 27=135Botswana 0.000 =135Cambodia 0.000 =135Croatia 0.000 =135Cuba0.000 =135Dominican Republic 0.000 44=135El Salvador 0.000 =135Equatorial Guinea 0.000 =135Eritrea 0.000 =135Guinea-Bissau 0.000 =135Iceland0.000 30=135Kosovo 0.000 =135Mauritania 0.000 =135Mauritius0.000 =135Mongolia0.000 =135Namibia0.000 =135North Korea 0.000 =135Oman0.000 =135Portugal 0.000 =135Romania 0.000 =135Singapore 0.000 =135Slovenia 0.000 =135Eswatini 0.000 =135The Gambia0.000 =135Timor-Leste 0.000 =135Togo 0.000 =135Turkmenistan 0.000 =135United Arab Emirates 0.000 34RANKCOUNTRY SCORERANK CHANGERANKCOUNTR YSCORERANK CHANGERANKCOUNTR YSCORERANK CHANGE
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