by BPE Outlook · Cited by 4 — The use of biofuels increases by just under 2 Mb/d (60 Mtoe), predominantly in road transport, with some increase in aviation. An alternative ‘Lower-carbon.

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3 | BP Energy Outlook: 2019 edition | © BP p.l.c. 2019 scenarios are not predictions of what is likely to happen or what BP the uncertainty surrounding energy markets out to 2040; they do not the multitude of uncertainties means the probability of any one of Outlook is only one source among many when considering the future The Energy Outlook shaping the global energy transition out to 2040 and the key uncertainties surrounding that transition

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5 | BP Energy Outlook: 2019 edition | © BP p.l.c. 2019 Welcome to the 2019 edition of BP™s Energy Outlook One of the biggest challenges of our time is a dual one: the need to meet rising energy demand while at the dual challenge will mean shifting to a world seeks to move to a pathway consistent with meeting the climate Much more progress and change is needed on a range of fronts if the world is to have any chance of Meeting the other side of the dual challenge will require many forms strong correlation between human development and energy consumption Œ and our analysis of this relationship in this year™s Outlook highlights the need for much more energy to meet There are many other challenges facing our industry as the global energy accounting for much of the growth in global GDP and energy consumption with the shale revolution catapulting the US to pole position as the world™s (LNG) transforming how natural gas is transported and traded around the energy is consumed is changing in energy increasingly becomes part of broader services that are bought and sold in ever more competitive and and ultimately thrive in this changing helping to drive economic growth technologies are revolutionizing the system is opening up a wide range of This year™s Energy Outlook provides fresh insight into these trends and such attempt is doomed to fail Œ the uncertainty surrounding the energy value of the Energy Outlook is in providing a structure and discipline best to encourage change that puts the world on a more positive and all part of the energy transition and the decisions all of us make today can shape the future for many years The Energy Outlook plays an important role in helping to inform and a useful contribution to your own Bob Dudley

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7 | BP Energy Outlook: 2019 edition | © BP p.l.c. 2019 Executive summary The demand for energy is set to driven by increases in prosperity in the developing world The Energy Outlook considers transition and the key issues and GDP more than doubles by 2040 driven by increasing prosperity in scenario this improvement in living standards causes energy demand to increase by around a third over the Other Asia which together account Despite this increase in energy world™s population in 2040 still live in countries where average energy consumption per head is relatively Energy consumed within industry and buildings accounts for around Growth in transport demand slows The share of passenger vehicle kilometres powered by electricity increases to around 25% by the increase in primary energy contributing half of the growth in global energy supplies and becoming the largest source of Demand for oil and other liquid The increase in liquids production Global coal consumption is broadly carbon emissions continue to comprehensive set of policy The Outlook considers a range of and the possible impact of an Key points

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9 | BP Energy Outlook: 2019 edition | © BP p.l.c. 2019 Contents Overview 10 Sectors 26Summary 28 Alternative scenario: Alternative scenario: Transport 42 Alternative scenario: Power 52 Alternative scenario: Regions 62 Global energy trade 70 Alternative scenario: Less globalization 72 Demand and supply of fuels 76 Overview 78 Oil 80 Alternative scenario: Greater reform 88 Natural gas 94 Nuclear and hydro 108 Comparisons 122 Carbon emissions 110 Summary 112 Alternative scenario: Beyond 2040 118 Annex 132 Global backdrop 16 Alternative scenario: More energy 22

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The Energy Outlook considers the perspectives each of which helps the transition: the sectors in which energy is used; the regions in which it is consumed and produced; and the consumption and production demand grows by around a third rate of growth than in the previous Growth in energy consumption with industry and buildings of the increase in energy demand trends in energy production lead to noticeable shifts in global energy accounting for around half of the grows much faster than either oil energy supplies plays an increasing role in shaping global energy Key points The Outlook 15 | BP Energy Outlook: 2019 edition | © BP p.l.c. 2019 Overview Primary energy demand Billion toe End-use sector Region Fuel

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Key points The world economy continues to Purchasing Power Parity basis) Œ a little weaker than average growth Global output is partly supported by population increasing by around growth is driven by increasing which accounts for almost 80% more than 2½ billion people from of a large and growing middle class in the developing world is an increasingly important force shaping global economic and Developing economies account accounting for around half of that Africa continues to be weighed accounting for almost half of but less than 10% of world Global GDP growth and regional contributions Increase in global GDP, 2017-2040 Global economic growth is driven by increasing prosperity in 19 | BP Energy Outlook: 2019 edition | © BP p.l.c. 2019 Global backdrop Trillion $US PPP % per annum Billions of people move from low- incomes driving global economic growth and energy demand

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prosperity drives growth in global Energy consumption in the ET scenario increases by around a of this increase stems from of people move from low to increase substantially their energy The overall growth in energy declines in energy intensity (energy used per unit of GDP) as the world increasingly learns to produce more with less: global GDP more than doubles consumption increases by Global energy grows at an slower population growth and faster prosperity and energy consumption proportion of the world™s population in the ET scenario still consumes relatively low levels of energy to produce ‚more energy™ as well as ‚less carbon™ is discussed Key points Contributions to primary energy demand growth Increase in primary energy demand, 2017-2040 21 | BP Energy Outlook: 2019 edition | © BP p.l.c. 2019 Global backdrop Billion toe % per annum

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