by E Lyons · 2019 — From the 16th to the early 20th century, Christian missionaries settled across sub-Saharan Africa in an effort to spread Christianity. As part of the conversion

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The Long – Term Effects of Christian Missions on Family Formation in sub – Saharan Africa Emily Lyons Professor Luke Chicoine Senior Economic s Capstone Bates College 8 April 2019 Abstract: This paper uses early 20 th century missions to estimate the long – term effects of shocks to human and social capital on contemporary family formation in sub – Saharan Africa. I find that women who live in closer proximity to a Protestant or Catholic mission desire smaller families , have fewer children, a nd exercise greater autonomy over their family planning. Additionally, this paper investigates various pathways through which missions effect these contemporary outcomes. I find evidence of a long – term persistence of educational attainment, but find no evidence supporting health or religious pathways.

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1 1 . Introduction From the 16 th to the early 20th century, Christian missionari es settled across sub – Saharan Africa in an effort to spread Christianity. As part of the conversion strategy, missionaries invested in various forms of human and social capital, which impacted the religious, cultural and economic conditions of the areas they settled in. The most notable investment was the construction of schools to increase literacy and encourage the reading of religious texts . Missions also provided healthcare, built health fac ilities, and were the first to bring modern medicine to the continent. Other investments include the int roduction of the printing press and newspapers, changes to political and social organization , and greater inclusivity . Due to these contributions, Christian mission s have been used to study long – term effects of historical shocks to human and social capital on present – day economic, political, and cultural development . Two cultural outcomes that are particularly relevant for sub – Saharan Africa are fertility and family planning. Though steadily decreasing since the 1970s, Africa has higher and more resilient fertility rates than any other continent (World Bank , 2016 ). There is a positive association between poverty and fert ility, and population growth and a high dependency ratio continue to limit social and economic development. Despite marginal progress, family planning methods are not meeting the needs of African women (Cle land, Nudugwa, and Zulu, 2011), and l imitations to contraceptio n access continue to disadvantage women of lower socioeconomic status (Creanga et al., 2011). Moreover, inequality and gendered soci al roles have conseque nces for the fertility decision , which is made between women, their husbands , and other family members . This paper attempts to identify a link between historical Christian missionary involvement and present – day family formation in sub – Saharan Africa. I use historical Catholic and Protestant miss ion data to determine the long – term effects of mission activities on contemporary fertility, ideal family size, contraception use, and female empowerment. I find that historical missionary influence has implications for family formation in the present, as women living in areas with greater exposure to early 20 th century missi ons not only desire smaller families, but ultimately have fewer children. Using individual survey data from 31 sub – Saharan African countries and missionary data from Ethnographic survey of Africa. Showing the tribes and languages; Also the Stations of Missionary Societies , I m e asure the distance from survey respondents to the nearest historical Catholic and Protestant mission to create my key explanatory variable . It i s possible that t he timing of mission presence in sub – Saharan Africa allows for a study of the effect of exogenous shocks to human and social capital on contemporary outcomes. T here are, however, concerns of endogenous selection of missions into areas with more favorable geography and/ o r pre – colonial characteristics. T o address this , I follow Cage and Rueda (2016) and r estrict the sample to only respondents that live near the missions .

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2 One of the most significant contributions made by Christian missionaries was the construction of schools. At the time, missions were the primary providers of education. Given the negative relationship between educational attainment and fertility, I examine education as a possible pathway through which missions affect family formation in the present. Th is paper discusses outcomes specifically through this pathway, though it is possible that others exist given the variety of investments made by missions . My r educed – form estimate finds that proximity to historical mission locations is associated with higher education al attainment in the present for both Protestant and Catholic mission locations . Consistent with the increase in schooling, I find that women livi ng near Protestant and Catholic missions both desire and ultimately have fewer children. A one standard deviation increase in proximity to a Protestant mission is associated with desiring 0.15 fewer children, and a decre ase in total fertility by 0.12 child ren in the present. Catholic missions have a comparable effect: a one standard deviation increase in proximity to a Catholic mission is associated with desiring and having 0.13 fewer children . Two additional factors that potentially influence family size and her empowerment. Women who are more knowledgeable about contraception and have a greater say in the fertility decision may have fewer children. I find that women living near historical mission locations are more likely to use contraception, and find that this effect is larger for women living in closer proximity to a Protestant mission . There is also evidence of long – term mission effects on female empowerment, though the magnitude is small. Living near a Protestan t mission shows some indication of greater autonomy and decision making , but living near a Catholic mission is surprisingly associated with lower female empowerment measures, specifically regarding the li kelihood of women having a say in how to spend money . The findings in this paper are consistent with much of the existing literature on Christian missions namely that missions have beneficial long – term effects on contemporary cultural, political, and social conditions. By looking at family formation, I contribute to a section of this literature concerning the – being and autonomy, and the characteristics of modern families in sub – Saharan Africa . 2. Literature Review This paper fits into a large body of literature on the long – term determinants of development. It is a relatively new area of study , with the first major contributions starting just a couple decades ago (Acemoglu et al., 2001; Engerman and Sokoloff, 1997, 2002; Glaeser and Sheifer, 2002). This earlier work identified correlations between historical events related to colonization and contemporary economic growth and institutional development. As summarized by Nunn ( 2014 ), the literature has evolve d significantly in recent

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3 years. New data and methodologies allow for better identification of a causal link between historical events and present – day development measures , and the specific pathways through which these effects persist . Among this newer lit erature is a section of research focused on the relationship between religious missionaries and contemporary religious, cultur al, and economic outcomes. Missions with various religious affiliations settled across the globe making human and social capital i nvestments as par t of their conversion strategies . Some of the most influential were Christian missions from Europe, which settled in Africa, Asia and the Americas . The empirical evidence documenting the long – lasting effects of their early investments is e xtensive , and finds that the shocks to human capital affect nearly every aspect of modern development. Given the extent of schooling investments made by missions, one of the most investigated outcomes is the persistence of educational attainment. Gallego and Woodberry (2010) and Nunn (2014) identify a long – run positive impact of mis sions on schooling. Both studies find Protestant missions ha ve a more persistent effect this is true overall in the case of Gallego and Woodberry (2010), and specifically for f emales in Nunn (2014). A greater effect of Protestant missions is also confirmed by Barro and McCleary (2017), who look education investment differences between Mainline Protes tant schools, Other Protestant s chools and Catholic schools in Guatemala, and fi nd that Protestant schools have greater consequence s for literacy than Catholic schools . Caicedo (2018 ) looks at missions founded by the Jesuit order in modern – day Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay . He finds that high er educational attainment today can be attributed to the mission s 250 years after the initial schooling investment s were made. The increase in educational attainment and other human capital measures is often looked at in relation to economic development . Caicedo (2018 ) finds that living closer to a Jesuit mission district is associated with higher incomes . Specifically, a 100 km increase in proximity to a mission district decreases poverty by 10% (as measured by an unsatisfied basic needs index). In Benin, Wantchekon et al. (2015) find that mission human capital investments have long – term positive effects on living standards. Those living near the initial school locations and thei r decedents have greater educational attainment, are more politically active, and are less like ly to work in the agricultural sector. Finally, Becker and Woessman n (2009 ) revisit the claim made by Weber (2001) that the economic development of areas with hi storical Protestant mission involvement is due to the Protestant w ork ethic. The original theory was based on the Protestant belief that hard work i s a requirement set by God, and that unnecessary spending is sinful . Looking at late 19 th century Prussia, Becker and Woessmann (2009) measure the consequences of Protestantism for human capital as an alternative to the work ethic theory . They find that through teaching people how to read religious texts, Protestants increased the amount and q uality of education for the local po pulation , and link literacy with greater economic prosperity. An additio nal focus within the literature is the effect of missions on conte mporary political outcomes. The relationship between missions and political institutions is looked at both across countries

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4 and at the sub – national level. Two influential papers from Woodberry (2004, 2012) document the and the development of civil society, which contributed to the development of democracy in countries across the globe . In looking at India, Lankina and Getachew (2012) find that Christian mission s directly influenced the emergence of democracy. The human capital investments increased social inclusivity and, consistent with Woodberry (2012 ), promoted organization and social reform. Finally, Cage and Rueda (2016) identify an increase in civic c ulture indicators (e.g., trust and newspaper readership ) in sub – Saharan Africa that are attributable to the printing press initially introduced by Protestant missions. Finally, there is evidence suggesting missions are particularly consequential for women and families. Both Becker and Woessman n (2015) and Nunn (2014) find gendered differences in long – term educatio nal effects, with women benefiting more from the Protestant schooling investments . Salhausen (2014) finds that for women born between 1880 and 1945 in Uganda, Protes tant missions were a source of empow erment, as they increased literacy and provided paid employment opportunities. This resulted in a smaller age gap. Finally, with respect to marriage and family structure, Fenske ( 2015) finds that missions are associa ted with a reduction in polygamous relationships . The practice of polygamy is negatively correlated with female empowerment indicators, and given the corresponding increases in educational attainment, missions appear to improve – being in the present day through human capital investments . This paper makes its contribution by determining the long – term impact of mission activities on female autonomy with respect to their husbands and their own reproduction . Specifically, this paper build s on the findings of Fenske (2015) by determining whether these effects have subsequent consequences for family structure and size in sub – Saharan Africa. 3 . Data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHSs) for 31 sub – Saharan African countries. A total of 74 surveys are collected from 1986 2017. The respondents in each country. This includes age, type of residence, religion, and years of schooling, as well as birth and reproductive activity history. Responses for women age d 15 to 49, born between 1950 and 1990 are included in the sample. Additionally, latitude and l ongitude coordinates are reported for Information on the locations 1925 Ethnographic survey of Africa. Showing the tribes and languages; Also the Stations of Missionary Societies , which was d igitized and used by Nunn (2014

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5 latitude and longitude coordinates of 361 Catholic and 932 Protestant missions i n 1925 . To determine a kilometers using the African Eq uidistant Conic coordinate projection system. The distance variable is calculated separately for Catholic and Protestant missions, as there is evidence suggesting long – te rm effects of missions differ depending on denomination (Gallego and Woodberry, 2010). Additionally, geography and historical controls are included to account for the determinants of mission locations . At the cluster level, the geography variables include suitability for agricu lture, precipitation, and elevation , which come from the GREG s hapefiles from the World Map, International Conflict Research ; the potential yield of low intensity rain – fed wheat, which comes from the Climate Research U nit, University of East Anglia; and distance from a major river, which comes from The World Bank Data Catalog . Absolute latitude and distance from the coast are calculated using ArcGIS . At the country level, geography variables include minimum rain and low est temperature , which come from Nunn (2008 ) ; ruggedness, land area, and soil quality, which come from Nunn ( 2012 ) ; and a malaria index from Fenske (2015) . For historical variables, pre – colonial popula tion and slave export data come from Nunn (2008) . Dista nce from a European explorer route are calculated in ArcGIS using shapefile data from Nunn ( 2011) . Summary statistics on the individual level controls, Christian missions, and outcome variables are reported in Table 1. Summary statistics for all geography and pre – colonial variables are included in the Appendix (Table A . 1).

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7 percent of women use a mode rn form of contraception, and 48 percent have ever used any form of contraception. The female empowerment measurements used in this paper are whether the woma n has a final say in v arious decision she makes with her husband or another party. Of the wo men included in this sample, 57 percent have a final say with r espect to their healthcare, 61 percent have a say regarding visits to relatives, 50 percent have a say in la rge household p urchases, and 48 percent participate in deciding Approximately half of the women visited a health facility in the last year, and 93 percent had at least one antenatal visit for their pregnancy. Finally, 73 percent of wo men are currently employed, and a large percentage of women identify as self – employed. 4. Empirical Methodology This paper uses a reduced form estimation to determine the effect of historical missionary activity on present – day education, desired famil y size, fertility, contraception use and female empowerment. I estimate the equation: (1) The dependent variable S ij is the outcome of interest for woman i in cluster j . Distance j is the interest, 1925 on the dependent variable for women i in the present day. X ij is a vector for individual, geography and historical of residence. Geographic controls include absolute latitude, distance from the coast, suitability for agriculture, precipitation, elevation, malaria , potential yields for low – intensity rain – fed wheat, minimum precipitation, maximum humidity, low temperature, ruggedness, land area, soil quality , and distance from a major river . Hi storical controls include distance to a European explorer route, slave exports and export area , and the log of population density in 1400. 4.1 Sources of Bias The use of Christian missions to study long – term effects of human and social capital is an area of increasing interest. As more attention is paid to early mission activities, there is an increasing concern o f a possible endogeneity problem of Christian mis sion location and expansion. This problem arises from mission selection into favorable locations, and the subsequent investments made based on these preferable conditions. This could potentially overestimate the effect of missions on contemporary outcomes if the missions capture the effect of omitted variables that are long – term determinants of these outcomes.

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8 There are a variety of strategies used in the literature to account for the potential issue of endogenous selection of mission location and investments . In looking at several South American countries , C aiec do (2018 ) is able to determine a long – term effect of Jesuit missions with two empirical tests. First, he compares Jesuit missions that were abandoned with those that remained in a placebo – type test. Finding no evidence of long – term effects from abandoned missions, the area of settlement seems inconsequent ial for contemporary development. Second, he compares Jesuit missions to near – by Franciscan Guarani missions, which placed less emphasis on education in the conversion process . Once again he finds an ef fect only for Jesuit missions, which suggests it was the human capital investments that were most important. In Benin, Wantchekon et al. (2015) also uses two strategies. First , villages with missions are compared to ne arby villages without missions to minimize variation in geography. Second , they look at are as where schools were established pr ior to the arrival of European colonizers to better isolate the human capital investments. Cage and Rueda (2016) use a matching strategy to not only isolate the effect of the missions, but to isolate the specific investm ents. By comparing missions with and without printing presses, they are able to find the long – term effect of this investment on civic culture and other social outcomes. Many other papers have focused on the inclusion of control variables, particularly g eography and pre – colonial characteristics, but also some contemporary outcomes such as the persistenc e of religion ( Fenske, 2015; Nunn 2010, 2014; Woodberry , 2012 ). This was most notably done by Jedwab et al., (2018) who builds an extensive list of control variables in an attempt to determine the extent of the endogeneity problem. This paper follows the strategy of the latter group and includes several geography and hi storical controls that could be determinan ts of both where the missions located and present – day development . Additionally, all results use a sample consisting of individuals that live within 100 km from a mission location . Since missions located in favorable areas, this reduces the likelihood of a n omitted variable, as locations surrounding missions should theoretically share many of the same characteristics. 5. Results This section documents the long – term effects of Christian missions on contemporary family formation. The effects of missions are looked at with respect to a possible education pathway, as this is the most theoretically pl ausible . Following this section, I address outstanding concerns regarding the use of Christian missions as a source of exogenous variation.

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9 5.1 . 1 Effect o f Mission Activity on Education First I estimate the effect of past Catholic and Protestant mission s on present – day education al attainment . Years of schooling is a relevant outcome when looking at family formation for tw o reasons. First , given the ear ly investments in education and literacy, there could be long – term effects through the persistence of educational values and/or the persistence of schooling infrastructure . Second , theory and empirical evidence suggest a negative correlation between e ducational attainment and fertility ( Ainsworth et al., 1996; Schultz , 1994 ) . Therefore, education is a possible pathway through which missions a ffect family formation in the present. Table 2 : Effect of mission activity on present – day education Dependent Variable: Years of Schooling (1 ) (2 ) Ln distance to any mission – 0.422 *** S.E. (0.023) Ln distance to Catholic mission – 0.124 *** S.E. (0.023) Ln distance to Protestant mission – 0.375 *** S.E. (0.023) N 266,475 266,475 Standard errors are clustered by survey cluster Sample includes women born between 1950 and 1990 from the 1986 2017 DHS that live within 100 km of a Christian mission *** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1 The results in Table 2 show that closer proximity to any mission is associated with more years of schooling. A one standard deviation increase in proximity to a Protesta nt mission is associated with an increase in schooling of 0.44 years . This effect is less for Catholic missions: a one standard deviation increase in proximity to a Catholic m ission is associated with a 0.16 year increase in schooling in the present day . This suggests that the activities and investments of missions have lo ng - term consequences , and those living near the location of these initial investments still benefit from them today. Additionally, t he different long - term effects of Protestant and Catholic missions on educational attainment are consistent with the Protest ant denomination valuing and investing more in education and literacy th an their Ca tholic counterparts. 5.1 . 2 Effect o f Mission Activity on Fertility and Ideal Family Size The main finding of this paper focus es on the effect of historical mission activity on contemporary ferti lity and the ideal family size. First , I look at the correlation between pro ximity to historical mission PAGE - 11 ============ 10 locations and . Then I identify a similar correlation wit h the total number of children born per woman. Table 3 : Effect of mission activity on desired number of children in the present day Dependent Variable: Desired Number of Children (1) (2) Ln distance to any mission 0.164 *** S.E. (0.083 ) Ln distance to Catholic mission 0.105 *** S.E. (0.008 ) Ln distance to Protestant mission 0.130 *** S.E. (0.008 ) N 287,247 287,2 47 Standard errors are clustered by survey cluster Sample includes women born between 1950 and 1990 from the 1986 2017 DHS that live within 100 km of a Christian mission *** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1 The results in Table 3 indicate that living closer to a historical mission location is associated with preferrin g fewer children in the present . A one standard deviation increase in proximity to a historical Protestant mission is associated with desiring 0 .15 fewer children in the present day. A one standard deviation increase in proximity to a Catholic mission is associated with desiring 0.13 fewer children. This finding is consistent w - quantity trade - theory, in which more educated par ents may want to invest more in their children, and therefore desire fewer of them (Becker, 1960). To determine if the desire for a smaller family size corresponds with a reduction in total fertility, I estimate the effect of historical mission activity on the number of children born per woman in the present . Figure 1 shows the raw correlation between distance from a mission and total fertility in the present. Living farther from a mission location is associated with higher fertility rates. 45 KB – 25 Pages