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Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2020What are the best bets for investment and devel-op ment in 2020? Based on insights from a select group of the most influential and experienced ULI members, this forecast will give you a heads-up on where to invest, which sectors and markets offer the best prospects, and trends in the capital markets that will affect real estate. A joint under-taking of PwC and ULI, this 41st edition of Emerging Trends is the forecast that you can count on for no-nonsense, expert insight.ULI is the largest network of cross-disciplinary real estate and land use experts who lead the future of urban development and create thriving communities around the globe. As a ULI member, you can connect with members around the world in the Member Directory (members.uli.org), find ULI opportunities to lead and volunteer on Navigator (navigator.uli.org), and explore our latest research and best practices on Knowledge Finder, including all the Emerging Trends in Real Estate® reports published since 2003. Visit uli.org/join to learn more about our exclusive member benefits.HighlightsŁ Tells you what to expect and what the expected best opportunities are. Ł Elaborates on trends in the capital markets, including sources and flows of equity and debt capital.Ł Indicates which property sectors offer opportunities and which ones to avoid.Ł Provides rankings and assessments of a variety of specialty property types.Ł Describes the impact of social and geopolitical trends on real estate.Ł Explains how locational preferences are changing.Ł Elucidates the increasingly important intersection of real estate and technology.Emerging Trends in Real Estate ®United States and Canada 2020www.pwc.comwww.uli.orgISBN978-0-87420-438-49780874204384˜˚˛˚˝˙ˆˇ˚ˇ˘54995
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iContents 1 Notice to Readers 3 Chapter 1 Shifting Focus to the Decade Ahead 4 Easing On Down the Road 6 The Siren Call of TINA 10 A New Menu for Markets 11 Housing: The Great Unraveling 13 A Community State of Mind 14 Hipsturbia 15 Boomers and Beyond: Let™s Think This Through 17 ESG: A Sustainable Trend 19 March of Technology: The What and When of Disruption 21 Infrastructure: Washington Fumbles; States and Cities Pick Up the Ball 23 Chapter 2 Markets to Watch 23 Top 20 Markets for 2020: A Tight Race toward the Top 31 Markets That Are Major Capital Magnets 33 Stalwarts, Surprises, and Determined Competitors 36 Markets Aligning with Expectations 38 Treasures Ripe for Discovery? 41 Potpourri: Thrifty Choices, Boutiques, and Special Situations 48 Chapter 3 Property Type Outlook 49 Industrial 53 Apartments 62 Single-Family Homes 65 Office 69 Retail 73 Hotels 76 Chapter 4 Emerging Trends in Canadian Real Estate 76 Putting Customers at the Heart of Reimagined Spaces 77 Powering Digital Transformation through Proptech 79 Navigating Policy and Geopolitical Uncertainty 81 Tackling Emerging Business Challenges 83 Property Type Outlook 87 Markets to Watch 91 Expected Best Bets in 2020 96 Interviewees Emerging Trends in Real Estate ®2020
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iiEditorial Leadership Team Abhi Jain Aki Dellaportas Alex Howieson* Ali Abbas* Alpa Patel* Ami Patel* Amy Brohman* Amy Matula Andrew Alperstein Andrew Nickel* Andrew Popert* Anthony Di Nuzzo* Ashley Somchanh* Ashley Yanke* Avery Munger Aynsley Price* Brett Matzek Brian Ness Bryan Allsopp* Bud Thomas Calen Byers Carly Stallwood* Carmelo Scali* Cathy Helmbrecht Charlene Rodenhiser* Charles Campany Chris Dietrick Chris Vangou* Christian Sedor Christina Howton* Christina Louie Christine Lam* Christopher Bailey Christopher Mill Court Maton Courtney McNeil Curtis Gagne* Dan Ryan Dana Miccio Daniel D™Archivio* Danielle Desjardins* Darren Speake* David Baldwin David Baranick David Seaman David Swerling David Voss David Whiteley* Dheeraj Bisla* Dillon White Douglas Struckman Dylan Anderson Dylan Shuff Ed Faccio Elliot Kung Emily Pillars Erin MacDonald Ernie Hudson* Eugene M. Chan Evan Cohen Francis Miu* François Berthiaume* Fred Cassano* Frédéric Lepage* Gary Meltzer Gimena de Buen* Gina Mandarino* Glenn Kauth* Harry de Haas* Heather Lashway Helen Zarokostas* Howard Quon* Howard Ro Ian Gunn* Ian Nelson Ira Shaw Isabelle Morgan Jacqueline Kelly Jacqueline Kinneary Jasen Kwong* Jason Hirschfeld Jason Ho* Jason Pagliaro* Jeremy Lewis Jesse Rosenstock Joannie Brulotte* John Bunting* John Crossman John Rosano John Satelmajer Johnny Cannon* Jonathan Osten* Joon Chan* Jordan Bennett* Joseph H. Schechter Joseph Moyer* Joshua Beaver* Karin Coetzee Katelyn Weiss Kelsey McLeod* Ken Griffin* Ken Su* Keri Zader Kevin Fossee Kevin Koons Kevin Ng* Kristen Conner Kristina Derek* Lanie Potgieter Laura Eldridge* Leah Gates* Leah Waldrum Lee Overstreet Libarid Guluzian* Lori Watson* Lori-Ann Beausoleil* Macy Anderson Mais Jarjour-Ouzon Matt Manza Matthew Rosenberg Matthew Manza Maxime Lessard* Megan Andrews Miranda Hardy* Mori Contreras Munezeh Wald Nadia King* Nadja Ibrahim* Natalie Cheng* Nick Ethier* Nicole Stroud Patricia Perruzza* Paul Mehlman Peter Harris* Philippe Pourreaux* Qiyan Mai Rachel Klein Rahim Lallani* Rajen Shah* Rajveer Hundal* Ray Witkos Rebecca Lyons* Renee Sarria Ricardo Ruiz Richard Fournier Rick Barnay* Rick Munn Rob Sciaudone Ron Bidulka* Ron Walsh* Rosanna Musto* Roxanne Carrier* Ryan Dumais Sabrina Fitzgerald* Sam Melehani Santino Gurreri* Scott Williamson Sean Bailey* Sergio Lozano Spyros Stathonikos* Stephen Crisafulli Steve Baker Steve Tyler Steven Tirado Tanya Hill-Larivière* Tara Jangle Thomas Knox Thomas Kozak Tim Bodner Tom Knox Tom Wilkin Tressa Teranishi* Trevor Toombs* Warren Marr Wendi Pope* Yousuf Abbasi Zac Konings* Zoe Funk *Canada-based. PwC Advisers and Contributing Researchers Emerging Trends Chairs Mitchell M. Roschelle, PwC W. Edward Walter, Urban Land Institute Authors Hugh F. Kelly Anita Kramer Andrew Warren Authors, Chapter 3: Property Type Outlook Timothy Corzine, Retail Melinda McLaughlin, Industrial John McManus, Apartments and Single-Family Homes Janet Pogue McLaurin, Office Mary Sullivan, Hotels Contributors Katharine Burgess John Chang Elizabeth Foster Beth Burnham Mace Molly McCabe Ryan Severino Carl Whitaker Senior Advisers R. Byron Carlock Jr., PwC Miriam Gurza, PwC, Canada Frank Magliocco, PwC, Canada Christopher J. Potter, PwC, Canada Nick Way, PwC Steven Weisenburger, PwC ULI Editorial and Production Staff James A. Mulligan, Senior Editor David James Rose, Managing Editor/Manuscript Editor Brandon Weil, Creative Director/Cover Designer Deanna Pineda, Muse Advertising Design, Designer Craig Chapman, Senior Director, Publishing Operations Owen Benge, Senior Associate, Capital Markets and Real Estate Payton Chung, Director, Capital Markets and Real Estate Jacob Hite, Intern, Capital Markets and Real Estate Emerging Trends in Real Estate ® is a trademark of PwC and is regis -tered in the United States and other countries. All rights reserved. At PwC, our purpose is to build trust in society and solve important problems. PwC is a network of firms in 158 countries with more than 250,000 people who are committed to delivering quality in assurance, advisory, and tax services. Find out more and tell us what matters to you by visiting us at www.pwc.com. © 2019 PwC. All rights reserved. PwC refers to the U.S. member firm or one of its subsidiaries or affiliates, and may sometimes refer to the PwC network. Each member firm is a separate legal entity. Please see www.pwc.com/structure for further details. © August 2019 by PwC and the Urban Land Institute. Printed in the United States of America. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without written permission of the publisher. Recommended bibliographic listing: PwC and the Urban Land Institute: Emerging Trends in Real Estate ® 2020 . Washington, D.C.: PwC and the Urban Land Institute, 2019. ISBN: 978-0-87420-438-4
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1Notice to Readers Emerging Trends in Real Estate ® is a trends and forecast publication now in its 41st edition, and is one of the most highly regarded and widely read forecast reports in the real estate industry. Emerging Trends in Real Estate ® 2020 , undertaken jointly by PwC and the Urban Land Institute, provides an outlook on real estate investment and devel -opment trends, real estate finance and capital markets, property sectors, metropolitan areas, and other real estate issues throughout the United States and Canada. Emerging Trends in Real Estate ® 2020 reflects the views of individuals who completed surveys or were interviewed as a part of the research process for this report. The views expressed herein, including all comments appearing in quotes, are obtained exclusively from these surveys and interviews and do not express the opinions of either PwC or ULI. Interviewees and survey participants represent a wide range of indus -try experts, including investors, fund managers, developers, property companies, lenders, brokers, advisers, and consultants. ULI and PwC researchers personally inter -viewed 750 individuals, and survey responses were received from more than 1,500 individuals, whose company affiliations are broken down below: Private property owner or commercial real estate developer: 27.6% Real estate advisory or service firm: 23.6% Homebuilder or residential land developer: 11.9% Private equity real estate investor: 11.3% Bank lender: 6.5% Investment manager/adviser: 6.5% Equity REIT or publicly listed real estate property company: 3.9% Institutional equity investor: 1.8% Private REIT or nontraded real estate property company: 1.7% Institutional lender: 1.0% Mortgage REIT: 0.9% Real estate debt investor: 0.8% Securitized lender: 0.7% Other entity: 1.8% Throughout this publication, the views of interviewees and/or survey respondents have been presented as direct quotations from the participant without name-specific attribution to any particular participant. A list of the interview participants in this year™s study who chose to be identified appears at the end of this report, but it should be noted that all interviewees are given the option to remain anonymous regarding their participation. In several cases, quotes contained herein were obtained from interview -ees who are not listed in the back of this report. Readers are cautioned not to attempt to attribute any quote to a specific individual or company. To all who helped, the Institute and PwC extend sincere thanks for sharing valuable time and expertise. Without the involvement of these many individuals, this report would not have been possible.
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3fiThe last 18 months roughly has been one of the more static periods I™ve seen in my career. I don™t mean static in a bad sense. I only mean the sense that whatever I would have said 18 months ago is not much different than I would have said this week,fl says a veteran real estate pro whose real estate career extends back to the Ronald Reagan years. In fact, many of our interviewees and focus groups noted the fion trackfl character of recent activity in the property development and investment field. This does not mean that they are in fiGroundhog Dayfl mode. No one claims we are in a time warp. Most of the experts in the real estate business are following through on business plans that have served them well over the past year and look like a solid roadmap for the future. That is exactly what fitrendsfl should produceŠconfidence that a business should not try to start from scratch every year. If you have thoughtfully assessed your resources, been careful about your objectives, and lined up the physical, financial, and human assets needed for successŠwell, your approach should have some staying power. TrendsŠby their natureŠare dynamic. Time is a stream, not a frozen pond. That stream runs toward the future, and each year puts some conditions into the past, and brings some conditions closer to realization. If the pace is gradual, we may hardly feel the changes. But they are happening even if subtly. That is one reason that an annual examination of Emerging Trends is such a healthy and helpful exercise. It is when change Shifting Focus to the Decade Ahead fi‚We™ve always done it this way™ doesn™t cut it in real estate anymore. We need to ˜nd the best way to do it.fl Exhibit 1-2 Firm Pro˜tability Prospects for 2020 0%20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 GoodŒexcellent AbysmalŒpoor Percentage of respondents Fair Source: Emerging Trends in Real Estate surveys. Exhibit 1-1 U.S. Real Estate Returns and Economic Growth -40% -30% -20% -10% 0%10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2%3%4% 5% 6%202 0*2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 Index change GDP change NAREIT Equity REIT Index NCREIF GDP Sources: NCREIF, NAREIT, Bureau of Economic Analysis/U.S. Department of Commerce, PwC Investor Survey. *Data for 2019 and 2020 are forecasts from the PwC Investor Survey, completed in 2Q 2019.
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5(GDP) closing out 2019 with a 2.5 percent gain, and a slowing but still-positive 1.8 percent advance in 2020, the fistuff you have no ability to changefl is still out thereŠand worthy of heed. The yield-curve inversion that took hold and then deepened during the first half of 2019 leads the list of warning signals. Housing starts have been softening, and the 6.6 percent year-over-year decline in residential permits recorded in June is presaging a weakening period ahead. Auto sales also have been languid, with implications for the consumer economy as well as for the manufacturing sector heading into 2020. Viewed one way, the decision of the Fed to ease interest rates at its July Federal Open Market Committee meeting is a sign of concern over the confluence of these domestic signals as well as a hedge against international risks in both finance and trade. Another significant indicator of the economy™s fragility, which the short memories of the 24-hour news cycle seem to have forgotten, is the impact that the government shutdown of last winter had on hundreds of thousands of workers with fisecurefl jobs. The delay in receiving a couple of paychecks prompted a run on food banks and sent households scrambling to meet rent and home mortgage payments. This amounted to a finatural experimentfl validating estimates that 41 percent of U.S. house -holds struggle with an emergency expense as little as $400, since they must first meet their existing obligations. The extent to which so many households are fion the edgefl is likely under -estimated in macroeconomic models. Recessions strike the economy at its points of excess. Many believe that the shape of the present expansionŠmoderate in pace as well as extended in lengthŠhas protected it from over -Exhibit 1-4 Debt Underwriting Standards Forecast for the United States 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 More rigorous Remain the same Less rigorous 13.1% 52.4% 34.5%24.9 45 .0 30.1 16.8 47 .0 36.2 8.4 44.2 47.4 35.4 51.7 12.9 45.7 44.7 9.6 43.3 39.4 17.3 Source: Emerging Trends in Real Estate surveys. Note: Based on U.S. respondents only. Exhibit 1-5 Equity Underwriting Standards Forecast for the United States 12.9% 55.5% 31.6%21.1 48.7 30.2 17.1 51.4 31.5 11.5 54.2 34.3 34 52.4 13.6 41.4 47.5 11.1 30.7 50.8 18.5 More rigorous Remain the same Less rigorous 20142015 201620172018 20192020Source: Emerging Trends in Real Estate surveys. Note: Based on U.S. respondents only. Exhibit 1-6 Availability of Capital for Real Estate, 2020 versus 2019 Lending source 3.44 3.32 3.27 3.17 3.09 3.00 3.41 3.47 3.38 2.92 3.32 3.20 3.51 3.49 3.21 3.12 3.08 3.01 2.91 3.52 3.57 3.29 2.97 3.19 3.31 3.24 2019202 02019202 01Large decline 243Stay the same 5Large increase Government-sponsored enterprises Commercial banks Securitized lenders/CMBS Mortgage REITs Insurance companies Nonbank ˜nancial institutions Debt funds Equity source Public-equity REITs Foreign investors Private REITs Private local investors Institutional investors/ pension funds Private equity/opportunity/ hedge funds Source: Emerging Trends in Real Estate surveys. Note: Based on U.S. respondents only.
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6heating. This is said to be reflected in the low rate of inflation, due in some measure to the failure of wages to rise over most of the period of declining joblessness. The coincidence of low inflation with low unemployment is said to be a justification for easing monetary policy even as the long economic expansion persists. But it may be that the unusual timing of rate reductions may itself contribute to excess. This is worth watching, especially coming on the heels of the significant fiscal stimulus of the 2017 tax cuts and the federal budget, which increased deficit spending by 17 percent in 2019, with red ink that will hit $1.1 trillion this year. Rate cuts (monetary stimulus) and deficit spending (fiscal stimu -lus) during a period of economic growth bring us into uncharted territory, and can be seen as borrowing growth from the future. If so, then the baseline forecast from the nonpartisan Con- gressional Budget Office (CBO) comes into sharper focus. That analysis calls for U.S. real GDP growth to drop to 2.1 percent in the year ahead (closely in line with private forecasters™ expec -tations), and then to remain below 2 percent throughout the coming decade. Core inflation is anticipated to stay at 2.4 to 2.6 percent through 2023, and 2.3 percent thereafter until 2029, while unemployment remains below 5 percent (up a bit from its recent lows). On the labor front, the more significant projection is this: after growing over 200,000 jobs per month on average during the current expansion, the average monthly gain in employment for the 2020s decade is projected to be just 46,600. It is safe to say that few have made plans for investment per -formance under conditions of such a sharp and then extended slowdown. Many real estate professionals take comfort in their experience (fiWe™ve been through cycles beforefl), expect that the next recession will not be as severe as the global financial crisis (very probably true), and that the next recovery will be at least as strong as the current expansion (highly unlikely, if the CBO projection is even approximately correct). We could be looking at an especially jolting shock to the system. In the short run, caution is advisable. One of our interviewees, with a solid background in troubled assets as a special servicer, advised asset managers to fiput some of your ‚dry powder™ aside to cover lower levels of NOI and for capex over the 2020s decade.fl An opportunistic developer is seeing some filate-cycle budget busts, where costs are running beyond its projects™ contingency cushion; in those cases, we reevaluate immediately and if the numbers don™t work, those deals are scrapped.fl A private-equity manager candidly acknowledges, fiIf the market were to take a turn, we™d find ourselves long on our investments, long on vacancies,fl and suggests that a defensive strategy might not be such a bad idea right now. For a few years now, commercial property has been fipriced to perfection,fl mean -ing that there is little in the way of a safety margin for negative surprises. So: spoiler alert! The fiemerging trendfl for real estate demand in the decade ahead is not just for softer demand, it is for dramati -cally softer demand. As we warned a year ago, confidence is one thing, complacency is another. At least some serious attention should be given to the prospects for an extended downshifting in the economy and its implications for commercial property demand in the decade ahead. 2. The Siren Call of TINA Way back in Emerging Trends 2006 , chapter one was titled: fiAs Long as Capital Keeps Flowing, Everything Will Be All Right.fl A careful reading of that report is instructive in many ways. There is a familiar ring to much of its narrative: The big dollars have been made from cap rate compression, [some] real estate is trading well above replacement cost, and pricing is ahead of where it should be at this point in the cycle. The consensus forecast, however, suggests that real estate can maintain a relative value edge over stocks and bonds, at least in the near term with the majority view that the risk premium for property investments has been reduced, enhancing stability and capital liquidity and limiting the chances for investment losses. Exhibit 1-7 How Pro˜tability Outlook Has Changed, 2020 versus 2019 Source: Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2020 survey. ˜˚˛˚˝˚˙Expectations are the same 54.5% Expectations are higher 22.6% Expectations are lower 22.8%
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7Our point is not a cheap critique of the optimism that reigned even as the global financial crisis loomed. That would be just Monday morning quarterbacking. The point is that a surfeit of capital desperately seeking placement is the very definition of a bubble that remains unrecognized until it bursts. Ruefully, one notable Wall Street executive lamented after the collapse a decade ago: fiAs long as the music is playing, you™ve got to get up and dance.fl The conundrum is real. Investment managers are not paid to sit on cash. And yet there is serious risk in an approach that deploys the capital just because it is there. The mantra encap -sulating a reasoning that one or another investment area must be chosen so that money can be put to work goes by the acro -nym fiTINAflŠfiThere Is No Alternative.fl There is no doubt about the pressure of capital. The volume of private-equity dry powder is now estimated to exceed $2 trillion, with 5 percent or more allocated to real estate. So much money is looking to be deployed in safe fixed-income investments that $12 trillion is now parked in negative-interest-rate debt instru -ments in Europe and Asia. Given the very high level of economic uncertainty around the worldŠan index of such uncertainty maintained by academics at Stanford, Northwestern, and the University of Chicago is 70 percent higher than during the global financial crisisŠa flight to safety is understandable, with key fac -tors including Brexit, tariff and trade wars, and political turmoil in France, South America, and the United States itself. That search for safety is one reason that U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have been pushed down, sending the markets a disturb -ing recession signal, inverting the two-year/10-year yield curve That edition noted that investors were increasingly fiforaging beyond core.fl Real estate was characterized as fipriced to per -fection.fl Cost concerns in construction labor and materials were cited as eroding builders™ margins. Interviewees conceded, fiExpansion has been at a subpar rate, but there is still some gas left.fl More suburban mixed-use development was encouraged; real estate investment trusts (REITs) were anticipated to continue consolidating into larger, more institutional companies; and housing prices were seen as being at nosebleed levels. Yet, the industry™s headline conclusion was that fithe real estate climate remains favorable.fl Exhibit 1-8 Real Estate Capital Market Balance Forecast, 2020 versus 2019 Debt capital for acquisitions Debt capital for re˜nancing Debt capital for development/redevelopment 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 Oversupplied In balance Undersupplied 8%54% 38% 16% 40% 44% 8%57% 35% 8%53% 39% 20%57% 23% 8%58% 34% Source: Emerging Trends in Real Estate surveys. Note: Based on U.S. respondents only. Exhibit 1-9 Real Estate Capital Market Balance Forecast, 2020 versus 2019 Equity capital for investing 2020 6%36% 58% 2019 6%32% 62% Oversupplied In balance Undersupplied Source: Emerging Trends in Real Estate surveys. Note: Based on U.S. respondents only.
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8in midsummer. It is also a reason that U.S. equities have been outperforming international stock indices, as they did between 1996 and 2007. The threat of recession is perceived to be higher abroad than in the United States right now (with Germany contracting in early 2019), prompting some worries about ficon -tagion.fl Yield, adjusted for risk, is in America™s favor right now even in today™s environment. What are the ramifications for real estate, as Emerging Trends ™ interviewees see them? From all corners of the United States, we hear that there is no shortage of equity or debt capital, but virtually no sense that there is a wave to ride toward future investment success. On the contrary, buyers and lenders are described as discriminat -ing. A North Texas observer remarks on fia continued shortage of deals with desirable yields; there are more investors chasing deals than there are good deals available.fl A West Coast fund manager marvels, fiIt™s amazing that U.S. real estate markets have done so well, given the uncertainty.fl Part of the reason, frankly, has been the hard lesson of expe -rience. There are still those bearing the scars of the Great Recession. But it is more than reflexive fear of pain. As one fiduciary put it, fiNCREIF investors are in the second genera -tion of learning about this asset class, especially in evaluating mixed-asset portfolios.fl They are drawing on more than intuition about volatility, relative performance among the property types, or geographic diversification. The application of fibig datafl and advanced analytics is com -ing into play more and more. This trend is migrating from the institutional investors into other buyer categories and is bound to accelerate. fiPension funds are cautious,fl says one executive whose firm is a recognized provider of much of the data-shaping strategies. fiWith a low probability of future appreciation, pension funds are getting most of their return from NOI, and this is not enough to satisfy long-term obligations.fl As yields disappoint, style creep is happening as capital slides up the risk curve. One researcher at a major retirement fund looks at its legacy portfolio, overweight in office and retail assets, and concedes that fithe past is our problem: we need to sell those assets and get into the real estate of the futureŠwhich includes data centers, cell towers, manufactured housing, and mixed-use sub -urbia.fl Selling offices is still an executable tactic; retail, not so much. What office and retail have in common is the continuous need for capital expenditure (capex) infusions, just to maintain market competitiveness. Lightening the portfolio load of such property types is a way toward capital preservationŠdo not spend money that does not earn another marginal dollar. Public-equity REITs, on the other hand, are likely to prosper in an environment of easy monetary policy. They certainly have during the first half of 2019, and one dealmaker in the world of REITs sees this being one of the best merger-and-acquisition years ever. There are now 30 REITs with a market cap of $10 billion or higher. He foresees consolidation producing three or four REITs per property sector, although the total value of these public companies may actually double over time. There are certainly opportunities for smaller firms in the finichefl property types. In terms of timing, he says, fiThe REITs have little to worry about from ‚end of cycle™ concerns. Debt discipline is the REITs™ Exhibit 1-10 Anticipated Changes in Commercial Mortgage Rates, In˚ation, Cap Rates, and Expected Returns, Next Five Years 0%10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%80% 90% Investor return expectations Real estate cap rates In˜ation Commercial mortgage rates Decrease Remain stable at current levels Increase substantially Increase Source: Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2020 survey. Note: Based on U.S. respondents only.
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