A.13 Balance of payments on current accounts, by country or country group, investment in the aftermath of the global financial crisis.

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iiWorld Economic Situation and Prospects 2019 ˜e report is a joint product of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social A˚airs (UN/DESA), the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the ˛ve United Nations regional commissions (Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), Economic Commission for Europe (ECE), Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Paci˛c (ESCAP) and Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA)). ˜e United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) also contributed to the report. For further information, visit https://www.un.org/development/desa/dpad/ or contact: DESA MR. LIU ZHEN MIN , Under-Secretary-General Department of Economic and Social A˜airs Room S-2922 United Nations New York, NY 10017 USA +1-212-9635958 undesa@un.org UNCTAD DR. MUKHISA KITUYI , Secretary-General United Nations Conference on Trade and Development Room E-9042 Palais de Nations, 8 Œ141211 Geneva 10 Switzerland +41-22-9175806 sgo@unctad.org ECA MS. VERA SONGWE , Executive Secretary United Nations Economic Commission for Africa Menelik II Avenue P.O. Box 3001 Addis Ababa Ethiopia +251-11-5511231 ecainfo@uneca.org ECE MS. OLGA ALGAYERO VA, Executive Secretary United Nations Economic Commission for Europe Palais des Nations CH-1211 Geneva 10 Switzerland +41-22-9174444 unece_info@un.org ECLAC MS. ALICIA BÁRCENA , Executive Secretary Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean Av. Dag Hammarskjöld 3477 Vitacura Santiago, Chile Chile +56-2-22102000 secepal@cepal.org ESCAP MS. ARMIDA SALSIAH ALISJAH BANA , Executive Secretary Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Paci˚c United Nations Building Rajadamnern Nok Avenue Bangkok 10200 Thailand +66-2-2881234 escap-scas@un.org ESCWA MR. MOUNIR TABET , Acting Executive Secretary Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia P.O. Box 11-8575 Riad el-Solh Square, Beirut Lebanon +961-1-981301 @ https://www.unescwa.org/contact ISBN: 978-92-1-109180-9 eISBN: 978-92-1-047611-9 Print ISSN: 1995-2074 Online ISSN: 2411-8370 United Nations publication Sales No. E.19.II.C.1 Copyright @ United Nations, 2019 All rights reserved

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iiiAcknowledgements ˜e World Economic Situation and Prospects 2019 is a joint product of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social A˚airs (UN/DESA), the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the ˛ve United Nations regional commissions (Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), Economic Commission for Europe (ECE), Eco -nomic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Paci˛c (ESCAP) and Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA)). ˜e United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), and sta˚ from the International Labour Organization (ILO) also contributed to the report. ˜e report has bene˛ted from inputs received from the national centres of Project LINK and from the deliberations in the Project LINK meeting held in Santiago, Chile on 5 Œ7 September 2018. ˜e forecasts presented in the report draw on the World Economic Forecasting Model (WEFM) of UN/DESA. Under the general guidance of Liu Zhenmin, Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social A˚airs, and Elliott Harris, United Nations Chief Economist and Assistant- Secretary-General for Economic Development, and the management of Pingfan Hong, Director of the Economic Analysis and Policy Division (EAPD), this publication was coor -dinated by Dawn Holland, Chief of the Global Economic Monitoring Branch of EAPD. ˜e contributions of Helena Afonso, Grigor Agabekian, Peter Chowla, Ian Cox, Daniel Gay, Andrea Grozdanic, Matthias Kempf, Leah C. Kennedy, Poh Lynn Ng, Ingo Pitterle, Micha˝ Podolski, Gabe Scelta, Nancy Settecasi, Yifan Si, Shari Spiegel, Sheilah Trotta, Sebastian Vergara, Mathieu Verougstraete , ˜et Wynn, Yasuhisa Yamamoto and Stephanie Gast Zepeda from UN/DESA ; Bruno Antunes, Regina Asariotis, Rodrigo Cár -camo, Stefan Csordas, Taisuke Ito, Nicolas Maystre, Viktoria Mohos-Naray, Janvier D. Nkurunziza, Bonapas Onguglo, Julia Seiermann, Mesut Saygili, Claudia Trentini, and Liping Zhang from UNCTAD ; Hopestone Chavula, Adam Elhiraika, Khaled Hussein, Allan Mukungu, Sidzanbnoma Nadia Denise Ouedraogo, and Duncan Ouma from ECA; José Palacín from ECE ; Claudia De Camino, Pablo Carvallo, Michael Hanni, Esteban Pérez-Caldentey, Ramón Pineda, Daniel Titelman, Cecilia Vera, and Jurgen Weller from ECLAC ; Goksu Aslan, Shuvojit Banerjee, Zhenqian Huang, Achara Jantarasaengaram, Zheng Jian, Daniel Jeong-Dae Lee, Hamza Ali Malik, Sanjesh Naidu, Kiatkanid Pongpan -ich, Ma. Fideles Sadicon, Sweta C. Saxena, and Vatcharin Sirimaneetham from ESCAP ; Seung-Jin Baek, Moctar Mohamed El Hacene, Mohamed Hedi Bchir and Ahmed Moum -mi from ESCWA ; Sandra Carvao, Michel Julian and Javier Ruescas from UNWTO; Flor -ence Bonnet and Juan Chacaltana from ILO are duly acknowledged. ˜e report was edited by Mary Lee Kortes.

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ivWorld Economic Situation and Prospects 2019 Explanatory notes The following symbols have been used in the tables throughout the report: ..Œ-˜Two dots indicate that data are not available or are not separately reported. A dash indicates that the amount is nil or negligible. A hyphen indicates that the item is not applicable. A minus sign indicates deficit or decrease, except as indicated. ./ Œ A full stop is used to indicate decimals. A slash between years indicates a crop year or financial year, for example, 2018/19. Use of a hyphen between years , for example, 2018Œ2019, signifies the full period involved, including the beginning and end years. Reference to fidollarsfl ($) indicates United States dollars, unless otherwise stated. Reference to fibillionsfl indicates one thousand million. Reference to fitonsfl indicates metric tons, unless otherwise stated. Annual rates of growth or change, unless otherwise stated, refer to annual compound rates. Details and percentages in tables do not necessarily add to totals, because of rounding. Project LINK is an international collaborative research group for econometric modelling, coordinated jointly by the Economic Analysis and Policy Division of UN/DESA and the University of Toronto. For country classifications , see Statistical annex. Data presented in this publication incorporate information available as at 30 November 2018 .The following abbreviations have been used: ASEAN BEPS BIS BoJ CEMAC CFA CIS CO2DAC DSM ECA ECB ECE ECLAC ECOSOC ESCAP ESCWA EU FDI Fed G20 GCC GDP GHG GNI GVCs Association of South East Asian Nations base erosion and profit shifting Bank for International Settlements Bank of Japan Central African Economic and Monetary Community Communauté financière africaine Commonwealth of Independent States carbon dioxide Development Assistance Committee dispute settlement mechanism United Nations Economic Commission for Africa European Central Bank United Nations Economic Commission for Europe United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean United Nations Economic and Social Council United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia European Union foreign direct investment United States Federal Reserve Group of Twenty The Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf gross domestic product greenhouse gas gross national income global value chains HLPF IEA IFF ILO IMF IPCC LDCs MNE MTS NAFTA ODA OECD OPEC PPP R&D SDGs SDT SIDS UNCTAD UN/DESA UNWTO VAT WAEMU WESP WTO United Nations High-level Political Forum on Sustainable Development International Energy Agency illicit financial flows International Labour Organization International Monetary Fund Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change least developed countries multinational enterprises multilateral trading system North American Free Trade Agreement official development assistance Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries purchasing power parity research and development Sustainable Development Goals special and differential treatment small island developing States United Nations Conference on Trade and Development Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat United Nations World Tourism Organization value-added tax West African Economic and Monetary Union World Economic Situation and Prospects World Trade Organization

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vSustainable Development Goals Goal 1. End poverty in all its forms everywhere Goal 5. Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls Goal 3. Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages Goal 7. Ensure access to a˚ordable, reliable, sus -tainable and modern energy for allGoal 2. End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture Goal 6. Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for allGoal 4. Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all Goal 8. Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all Goal 9. Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation Goal 11. Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable Goal 15. Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat deserti˛cation, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss Goal 13. Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impactsGoal 17. Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the Global Partnership for Sustainable Development Goal 10. Reduce inequality within and among countries Goal 14. Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development Goal 12. Ensure sustainable consumption and pro -duction patternsGoal 16. Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build e˚ective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels

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viiTable of contents Table of contents Acknowledgements . iiiExplanatory notes .. ivSustainable Development Goals vForeword .. xvExecutive summary . xvii Chapter I Global economic outlook .. 1Prospects for the world economy in 2019Œ2020 1Robust global growth masks an increase in risks and vulnerabilities . 1Investment is contributing more to growth .. 9Employment is rising, but job quality is low .. 13Economic conditions remain challenging for many commodity exporters 18International trade . 20Global trade growth moderates, amid heightened trade tensions . 20Impact of tari˚ hikes is heterogeneous across sectors and ˛rms .. 23International financial flows .. 30Financial market volatility has increased . 30O˙cial development assistance declined in 2017 36Risks to the outlook 37Escalating trade policy disputes .. 37Abrupt tightening of global ˛nancial conditions . 40Appendix Baseline forecast assumptions . 47Commodity prices . 47Monetary policy 49Fiscal policy 52Exchange rates . 55Chapter II Macroeconomic prospects and the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development . 57Strengthening international cooperation and multilateralism . 58International trade policy 58Revenue mobilization for sustainable development .. 64 Macroeconomic conditions and climate change .. 69Overcoming domestic structural challenges 78Excessive commodity dependence 78Poverty and inequality 87

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viiiWorld Economic Situation and Prospects 2019 Page Chapter III Regional developments and outlook .. 97Developed economies .. 97United States: GDP growth to moderate as impact of ˛scal stimulus wanes amid rising capacity constraints 97Canada: housing market has cooled, but household debt may pose a risk as interest rates rise .. 99Japan: economy at capacity despite a slower expansion 100 Australia and New Zealand: robust economic growth continues despite emerging uncertainties 101 Europe: robust growth ahead, but risks to the outlook are shifting .. 102 Economies in transition 109 ˜e Commonwealth of Independent States and Georgia: commodity price increases and remittances sustained growth 109 South-Eastern Europe: positive economic trends set to continue . 114 Developing economies . 117 Africa: improving short-term outlook but with signi˛cant medium-term vulnerabilities 117 East Asia: growth outlook remains robust, but downside risks are high . 133 South Asia: economic outlooks diverge as short- and medium-term challenges remain 143 Western Asia: gradual recovery as oil markets improve .. 149 Latin America and the Caribbean: growth is projected to gradually pick up, but major downside risks remain .. 157

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ixTable of contents Page Boxes I.1 Graduation from the United Nations least developed country category . 8 I.2 Informal employment around the world: recent data and policies 14 I.3 Impacts of large-scale electric vehicle deployment on battery metals markets .. 19 I.4 International tourism 22 I.5 Technological capabilities and export dynamics in developing countries 25 I.6 Trade in services as a driver of development in times of tension: inclusiveness, resilience and diversi˛cation . 28 II.1 Strengthening multilateralism and international cooperation to achieve SDG target 17.11 60 II.2 Climate change adaptation for coastal infrastructure in Caribbean small island developing States .. 75 II.3 Nigeria: from economic boom to prolonged slump .. 82 II.4 Case studies of successful natural resource management: Botswana and Costa Rica 86 II.5 Finance, growth and inequality . 93 III.1 Emerging labour shortages in Eastern Europe 106 III.2 New ˛scal rules in energy-exporting countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States .. 112 III.3 African Continental Free Trade Area: opportunities and challenges for achievingˆsustainable development .. 124 III.4 China™s economic transition and its potential impacts on Asia and the Paci˛c 137 III.5 Exploring exchange-rate misalignment in Arab countries 153 III.6 ˜e determinants of investment and their relative importance .. 159 Figures I.1 Growth of world gross product, 2012 Œ2020 . 2 I.2 Contributions to change in world gross product growth, 2017Œ2018 3 I.3 GDP per capita growth, 2018 6 I.4 Average annual GDP per capita growth by region .. 7 I.5 Contribution to GDP growth by expenditure component, 2018 9 I.6 Annual growth of private investment, decomposed by asset type (constant prices) 10 I.7 Annual growth of gross ˛xed capital formation in selected developing economies 11 I.8 Inˇation in 2017 and 2018 . 12 I.2.1 Extent and composition of informal employment, 2016 . 14 I.2.2 Level of GDP per capita and informal employment share 15 I.9 Real household disposable income, developed economies 17 I.10 Major commodity prices . 17 I.3.1 Battery metals prices and EV sales .. 19

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xWorld Economic Situation and Prospects 2019 Page I.11 Contribution to global merchandise export volume growth by region, 2011Œ2018 .. 21 I.12 Contribution to global merchandise import volume growth by region, 2011Œ2018 .. 21 I.13 Steel prices in the United States and world, January 2017ŒOctober 2018 24 I.5.1 Economic complexity and R&D investments, 2015 . 25 I.5.2 Technological capabilities and GDP per capita, 2015 26 I.14 Growth of world trade and world gross product, 1992Œ2020 27 I.6.1 Services and goods exports (value), 2005Œ2017 .. 28 I.6.2 Exports value growth by deciles of export value, 2005Œ2017 .. 29 I.15 Stock market performance in the United States and the emerging economies . 30 I.16 Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index .. 31 I.17 CBOE equity volatility index (VIX) . 31 I.18 Current account vs ˛scal balance in selected emerging economies .. 32 I.19 US dollar exchange rates and foreign reserves of selected emerging economies, JanuaryŒOctober 2018 .. 33 I.20 Non-resident portfolio inˇows to the emerging economies .. 35 I.21 Net o˙cial development assistance, by main expenditure component .. 37 I.22 United States: tari˚s introduced and proposed, 2018 38 I.23 Price-earnings ratio of S&P 500 index vs long-term interest rates .. 41 I.24 Breakdown of non-˛nancial sector debt of developed and emerging economies . 42 I.25 Dollar-denominated credit to non-bank borrowers in selected emerging economies . 43 I.26 Government interest payments as a share of general government revenue, 2018 44 I.A.1 Selected commodity prices, January 2011Œ September 2018 . 47 I.A.2 Price of Brent crude: recent trends and assumptions . 49 I.A.3 Key central bank policy rates: recent trends and assumptions 49 I.A.4 Total assets of major central banks, January 2007ŒDecember 2020 . 50 I.A.5 Monetary policy stances . 51 I.A.6 Fiscal policy stances . 53 I.A.7 Major currency exchange rates: recent trends and assumptions .. 55 II.1 Total number of active trade disputes, 1996Œ2018 .. 59 II.1.1 LDC share of world merchandise exports, population and the SDG target, 2011Œ2020 . 60 II.2 Median tax revenue by country groupings, 2000, 2010 and 2015 65 II.3 Schematic representation of components and channels of illicit ˛nancial ˇows .. . 69 II.4 Global anthropogenic GHG emissions, 2015 71 II.5 GDP and emissions growth A. GDP and GHG emissions growth, 1991Œ2016 71 B. Decomposition analysis of global CO 2 emissions, 1990Œ2017 71 II.6 Number of registered weather-related loss events worldwide, 1981Œ2017 73

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