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Citation: FAO. 2017. The future of food and agriculture Œ Trends and challenges. Rome. The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers, whether or not these have been patented, does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. ISBN 978-92-5-109551-5 © FAO, 2017 FAO encourages the use, reproduction and dissemination of material in this information product. Except where otherwise indicated, material may be copied, downloaded and printed for private study, research and teaching purposes, or for use in non-commercial products or services, provided that appropriate acknowledgement of FAO as the source and copyright holder is given and that FAO™s endorsement of users™ views, products or services is not implied in any way. All requests for translation and adaptation rights, and for resale and other commercial use rights should be made via www.fao.org/contact-us/licence-request or addressed to copyright@fao.org. FAO information products are available on the FAO website (www.fao.org/publications) and can be purchased through publications-sales@fao.org.

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iiiContents Foreword viAcknowledgements viii Abbreviations ixExecutive summary xCAUSE FOR HOPE AND CONCERN 1TRENDS 91 Population growth, urbanization and ageing 11 2 Global economic growth, investment, trade and food prices 17 3 Competition for natural resources 32 4 Climate change 39 5 Agricultural productivity and innovation 46 6 Transboundary pests and diseases 56 7 Con˜icts, crises and natural disasters 62 8 Poverty, inequality and food insecurity 70 9 Nutrition and health 8010 Structural change and employment 88 11 Migration and agriculture 98 12 Changing food systems 106 13 Food losses and waste 112 14 Governance for food and nutrition security 118 15 Development ˚nance 123 CHALLENGES 133 1 Sustainably improving agricultural productivity to meet increasing demand 136 2 Ensuring a sustainable natural resource base 136 3 Addressing climate change and intensi˚cation of natural hazards 137 4 Eradicating extreme poverty and reducing inequality 138 5 Ending hunger and all forms of malnutrition 139 6 Making food systems more ef˚cient, inclusive and resilient 140 7 Improving income earning opportunities in rural areas and addressing the root causes of migration 141 8 Building resilience to protracted crises, disasters and con˜icts 142 9 Preventing transboundary and emerging agriculture and food system threats 142 10 Addressing the need for coherent and effective national and international governance 143 ANNEX International frameworks of relevance to FAO™s work and mandates 145 REFERENCES 151

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ivFigures 1.1 Global population growth to 2100, by variant 12 1.2 Population growth to 2100, by region (medium variant) 13 1.3 Growth in global urban and rural populations to 2050 14 1.4 Urbanization trends, by region 15 2.1 Projections of GDP growth, by region 18 2.2 Projections of per capita GDP growth, by region 18 2.3 Growth in GDP to 2050, by region 19 2.4 Growth of per capita GDP to 2050, by region 20 2.5 Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), by region, 1990Œ2015 22 2.6 Investment rates, by country group and region, 1990Œ2015 23 2.7 Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) in agriculture, by country group and region, 1990Œ2015 24 2.8 Agricultural investment orientation ratio by region, 1990Œ2015 25 2.9 Agricultural net capital-output (value added) ratio, 1990Œ2015 26 2.10 Additional income and investment to eradicate hunger by 2030 27 2.11 Total and agricultural international trade volume, 1961Œ2015 28 2.12 Percentage of net food imports in domestic food supply in total calories 29 2.13 FAO real food price index (RFPI) 30 3.1 Agricultural and forest land use 1961Œ2013 33 3.2 Net forests conversion, by region, 1990Œ2015 33 3.3 Total annual freshwater withdrawals as a percentage of total annual available ˜ow 37 3.4 Trends and projections in land equipped for irrigation to 2050 38 4.1 Annual greenhouse gas emissions from Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) 40 4.2 Annual greenhouse gas emissions from all sectors 40 4.3 Projected changes in crop yields owing to climate change 42 5.1 Average annual rate of change in crop yields 48 5.2 Sources of growth in agricultural production, by country income group, 1961Œ2010 50 5.3 Averages of agricultural research intensity, by country income group 52 6.1 Reported outbreaks of lumpy skin disease, per month, 2006Œ2015 57 6.2 Global spread of crop pests and pathogens, 1950Œ2000 58 7.1 Prevalence of undernourishment and protracted crises 63 7.2 Climate-related disasters, 1980Œ2011 66 7.3 Agricultural production losses after medium- to large-scale disasters in developing countries, by cause and region, 2003Œ2013 67 8.1 People below the poverty line (PPP) of US$ 1.90 per day, 1990Œ2015 71 8.2 Per capita indicators of low- and middle-income countries relative to high-income countries, 1990Œ2015 74 8.3 GDP per capita projections in low- and middle-income countries as a share of high-income countries 76 8.4 Undernourishment in a ‚business-as-usual™ scenario, 2005Œ2050 78 9.1a Per capita calorie intake by source, 1961Œ2050 83 9.1b Per capita calorie intake in low- and middle-income countries compared to high-income countries 83 9.2a Per capita protein intake by source, 1961Œ2050 84

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vii FAO™s vision is of a ‚world free from hunger and malnutrition, where food and agriculture contribute to improving the living standards of all, especially the poorest, in an economically, socially and environmentally sustainable manner™. To help its Member Countries realize that shared vision Œ individually at the national level and collectively at the regional and global levels Œ FAO organizes its work taking account of the main challenges facing the food and agriculture sector. The present study, which was undertaken for the quadrennial review of FAO™s Strategic Framework and preparation of the Organization™s Medium-Term Plan, 2018Œ21, lays out key global trends and challenges that will in˜uence food and agriculture in the coming decades. The trends and challenges analysed here are cause for both hope and concern. Much progress has been made in reducing hunger and poverty and improving food security and nutrition. Gains in productivity and technological advances have contributed to more ef˚cient resource use and improved food safety. But major concerns persist. Some 795 million people still suffer from hunger, and more than two billion from micronutrient de˚ciencies or forms of overnourishment. In addition, global food security could be in jeopardy, due to mounting pressures on natural resources and to climate change, both of which threaten the sustainability of food systems at large. Planetary boundaries may well be surpassed, if current trends continue. Our assessment of prevailing trends suggests, therefore, that in order to realize FAO™s vision, transformative change in agriculture and food systems are required worldwide. In FAO™s view, there are 10 key challenges that need to be addressed if we are to succeed in eradicating hunger and poverty, while making agriculture and food systems sustainable. Those challenges include the uneven demographic expansion that will take place in the coming decades, the threats posed by climate change, the intensi˚cation of natural disasters and upsurges in transboundary pests and diseases, and the need to adjust to major changes taking place in global food systems. We welcome the growing attention that the international community is paying to these concerns. Overall trends and issues have spurred the global community to action through a series of initiatives and agreements in 2015Œ16, which have reset the global development agenda. These developments constitute the global context for FAO™s work in the future, under the overall umbrella of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and include the Addis Ababa Action Agenda, the Paris Agreement on climate change, the World Humanitarian Summit and the United Nations Secretary-General™s Agenda for Humanity. The purpose of this report is to help mobilize the concrete and concerted actions required to realize these global agendas. It contributes to a common understanding of the major long-term trends and challenges that will determine the future of food security and nutrition, rural poverty, the ef˚ciency of food systems, and the sustainability and resilience of rural livelihoods, agricultural systems and their natural resource base. José Graziano da Silva Director-General Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

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viii Acknowledgements This report is an FAO corporate effort that builds on contributions from all of FAO™s Technical Departments. A preliminary version of this report was prepared as a study for the Strategic Thinking Process underpinning FAO™s Medium-Term Plan 2018Œ2021, whose objectives are to review FAO™s strategic framework in the light of recent global challenges facing the Organization™s Member Nations and the international community. The FAO Strategic Experts Panel, comprising Alain de Janvry, Ismahane Elouafy, Shenggen Fan, Gustavo Gordillo, Marion Guillou, Mulu Ketsela and Martin Piñeiro, provided comments and guidance for improving the initial assessment. The panel described the document as ‚an example of FAO™s extraordinary capacities to mobilize information and knowledge™ and recommended that it be made public. Preparation of both the preliminary study and this publication was coordinated by FAO™s Global Perspective Studies (GPS) team in the Economics and Social Development (ES) Department, under the general direction and oversight of Rob Vos, Director of FAO™s Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA). Lorenzo Giovanni Bellù (GPS Team Leader) coordinated the technical work. Kostas Stamoulis, Assistant Director- General a.i. of ES Department, and Boyd Haight, Director of the Of˚ce of Resources and Strategic Planning (OSP), provided general guidance and encouragement to complete the work. Aysen Tanyeri- Abur (OSP) provided substantive inputs to the study while Martin Piñeiro (OSP) contributed to the study design and overall orientation. Graeme Thomas led the ˚nal editing of this study. Editorial support was further provided by Gordon Ramsay and Daniela Verona. Giulio Sansonetti did the graphic design and layout. Linda Arata, Aikaterini Kavallari, Marc Müller, and Dominik Wisser (GPS) did research and data analysis. Anna Doria Antonazzo provided administrative support. This report would not have been possible without the substantive inputs and review of specialists from across all FAO™s Departments. Critical contributions were provided by the following: Economic and Social Development Department Dubravka Bojic, Andrea Cattaneo, Juan Garcia Cebolla, Michael Clark, Piero Conforti, Andre Croppenstedt, Charlotte Dufour, Valentina Franchi, Ileana Grandelis, Erica Gunther, Günter Hemrich, Julius Jackson, Szilvia Lehel, Andrea Luciani, Dalia Mattioni, Unna Mustalampi, Karfakis Panagiotis, Anna Rappazzo, Josef Schmidhuber, Vanya Slavchevska, Libor Stloukal, Florence Tartanac, Francesco Tubiello, Klaus Urban, Robert Van Otterdijk, Ramani Wijesinha-Bettoni and Trudy Wijnhoven. Agriculture and Consumer Protection Department Teodardo Calles, Mona Chaya, Giacomo De Besi, Hans Dreyer, Fazil Dusunceli, Ahmed El Idrissi, Alison Hodder, Markus Lipp, Allison Loconto, Juan Lubroth, Raffaele Mattioli, Chikelu Mba, Dominique Menon, Anne Sophie Poisot, Sean Shadomy, Berhe Tekola, Richard Thompson and Gregorio Velasco Gil. Forestry Department Simone Borelli, Susan Braatz, Lauren Flejzor, Thais Linhares Juvenal, Eva Müller and Zuzhang Xia. Fisheries and Aquaculture Department Manuel Barange, Malcolm Beveridge, Victoria Chomo, Simon Funge, Arnì Mathiesen and Stefania Vannuccini. Technical Cooperation Department Bruna Bambini, Anne Klervi Cherriere, Rimma Dankova and Guy Evers. Climate and Environment Division Mark Davis, Martin Frick, Nina Koeksalan, Niccolò Lombardi, and Selvaraju Ramasamy. In addition, contributions were received from Yon Fernandez of the Partnerships, Advocacy and Capacity Development Division (OPC) and all ˚ve of FAO™s Strategic Programme (SP) management teams, speci˚cally from Karel Callens (SP1), Clayton Campanhola (SP2), Benjamin Davis and Stina Heikkilä (SP3), Jamie Morrison and David Neven (SP4), and Dominique Burgeon (SP5).

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ixAbbreviations AFOLU Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use AMR antimicrobial resistance AT2050 World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision (Alexandratos and Bruinsma, 2012) DES dietary energy supply DRR disaster risk reduction FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FBS food balance sheets FDI foreign direct investment FMD foot-and-mouth disease GDP gross domestic product GHG greenhouse gas GMO genetically modi˚ed organism Gt gigatonne ha hectare IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change LOESS local polynomial regression MDG Millennium Development Goal NDC Nationally Determined Contribution NGO non-governmental organization ODA Of˚cial Development Assistance OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OECD-DAC OECD Development Assistance Committee OIE World Organisation for Animal Health PPP purchasing power parity R&D research and development RFPI real food price index RTA regional trade agreement SDG Sustainable Development Goal SSP Shared Socioeconomic Pathway TFP total factor productivity TTIP Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership TTP Trans-Paci˚c Partnership UN United Nations UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change WFP World Food Programme WHO World Health Organization

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