by B VASSILEVA · Cited by 1 — Bistra VASSILEVA and Moti ZWILLING. Abstract: In the past few years, the body of knowledge on hybrid warfare grew con- siderably, as did its importance both

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Published by ProCon Ltd.,, under Creative Commons 4.0 Attribution – NonCommerc i al – ShareAlike International license (CC BY – NC – SA 4.0). Information & Security: An International Journal Vassileva & Zwilling , v .39 :3 , 2018, 220 – 234 19 HYBRID WARFARE SIM U LATION – BASED LEARNING: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES Bistra VASSILEVA and Moti ZWILLING Abstract : In the past fe w years, the body of knowledge on hybrid warfare grew con – siderably, as did its importance both in practice and in academia. This article provides a current overview of the existing body of the literature in the field of simulation – based learning and the hybr id warfare issues of key importance. The authors present here an original framework related to simulation – based learning environment which provides students or trainees the opportunity to acquire knowledge and skills to deal with dif – ferent situations in hy brid warfare impacting both the private and the public sector. Research questions driving this study are as follows: First, to identify key topics of hy – brid warfare which should be taken as mandatory topics during the training sessions; second, to evaluate the possibilities to apply simulation – based learning to hybrid war – fare issues, and, third, to propose a methodological framework of simulation – based learning environment about key hybrid warfare topics and related technological issues. Keywords : hybrid wa rfare, simulation – based learning, applied competences, cyber se – curity . 1. Hybrid Warfare as a Learn – changer Two of the most notable characteristics of 21st century world are discontinuity and complexity. Continuous change is characterized by unstable economic conditions, rapidly changing technologies, global competition, workforce diversity, and new or – ganizational structures. We live in a world of shrinking boundaries and shifting eco – nomic fortunes . 1 Disruptive technologies, rapid structural changes and eco nomic tur – bulence are impacting the global economy by accelerating the rise of complexity. Complexity becomes a new norm in contemporary world which requires a new per – spective both from theoretical and applied point of view. The exponential change (ir – respec tive of the level) generally creates significant chaos which frequently becomes the progenitor of conflict . 2 From the point of view of nonlinear dynamics , our tradi – tional way of thinking about international relations, international conflicts and even abo ut learning reached a bifurcation point a turning point, where a minor fluctua –

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Bistra Vassileva and Moti Zwilling 221 Hybrid warfare as a relatively new phenomenon challenges our mind – sets and teach – ing – learni ng approaches. 1 It certainly could be defined as a learn – changer. 1.1. The Concept and the Challenges of Hybrid Warfare According to the U . S. Capstone Concept for Joint Operations appear as hybrids comprising diverse, dynamic, and simult aneous combinations of 3 The most popular definitions of hybrid war tend to emphasize the blending of regular and ir – regular approaches to warfare in novel and unexpected ways. Hybrid warf are is the visible part of a complex phenomenon (i.e. the top of the iceberg) while hybrid con – flicts and hybrid threats which trigger the warfare are hidden below the surface. Hy – combina – tion of state and non – state entities. Second, a diverse mix of conventional, irregular, terrorism and criminal 2 means or activities are used in the operational battlespace. In hybrid wars, these means are emerging into the same force in the same ti me and in the same battlespace. Hoffman proposes that the evolving character of conflict that we currently face is best characterized by convergence in several aspects: 4 ( 1 ) physical and psychological, ( 2 ) kinetic and non – kinetic, ( 3 ) combatants and non – com batants, ( 4 ) military force and in – teragency community, and ( 5 ) state and non – state actors. Philp and Martin suggest – tion of events in time, and the time – depreciating – value of knowle dge in the face of opposition and uncertainty, may map onto a future goal – 5 Contemporary con – flicts differ substantially from past conflicts in terms of frequency (time) and charac – ter. The predominant notion features future conflicts as multi – modal or multi – variant rather than a simple black or white characterization of one form of warfare. The increase in information technology and information data had recently provid ed an incentive to many firms to invest in cyber technology, in order to be prepared to th e future hybrid warfare. As stated , the explosion of information had produced many challenges to military commanders, industry and academic researchers. One of the main challenges is the need to train both military organizations as well as industries to be able to plan and react to cyber – attacks before they occur, especially the so called attacks. Such preparations require the organization to map its assets, and in addition to develop a strategy how to transfer, stor e, recognize and filter data 1 Some authors argue that during the history, many wars have had both regular and irregular components, but these compone nts occurred in different stages, theat r e s or formations. See for example . 2 Hoffman (2009: 35) defines the threats as traditional, irregular, terrorist, and disruptive.

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Hybrid Warfare Sim u lation – based Learning: Challenges and Opportunities 222 which is presumed as malware in real time attacks. In military, most of these attacks as published are defined as NCW (network centric warfare). The way in which organizations are planning to prepare for a hybrid warfare which is supported by internet infrastructure, had l ed many decision makers to think that tech – nology is not sufficient to assist organizations to handle cyber – attacks ; they rather need to invest time in developing concepts which would help all operations that are tri g ge red by decision makers, co mputers agents , or in i tiated in response to physical weapons or attacks on infrastructure . One of the main challenges is to build a conceptual view of the NCW, while viewing the assets network as a network of many processes, which could be handled and mon – itored through a SOC ( Security Operation s Cent r e ). A c cording to this concept, the CSO (Chief Security Officers) many events such as: to monitor and block intruders to exploit security breaches and penetrate the perimeter network of the organization. P hister and Plonish had already shown in their study that many military organizations around the world had already – scenarios. 6 Such a concept, which w as demonstrated by the auth ors already in 2004, had developed and became more sophisticated in the recent years while influencing organizations by building concepts and tools to defen d themselves from cyber – attacks. These tools are evaluated from the concept of performance and cos t. Furt h er, according to Phister and Plonish – tationally based, while military applications are based more on supporting courses of actions . 6 Moreover, as the amount of data and technology in organizations increas – es, the d emand to evaluate data that is resourced from many devices increases as well . This phenomen on will also influence the aspects of software framework and architec – ture or infrastructure that is intended to support and enable integration of many com – ponents fused to one control and monitor central system. 1.2. Teaching Methodologies for Hybrid Warfare As it was mentioned above due to the influence of hybrid warfare new educational approaches are needed. There is increasing consensus 2, 7, 8 that traditional educat ional system which is based on conformity and compliance should be transformed by the implementation of creative pedagogical approaches to develop innovative thinking and to stimulate strategic thought. Beyond knowledge and skills training, the learning proces s should emphasise the following: (1) developing a mindset which is global; (2) working through a model of cross – cultural reconcilement; and (3) emphasising

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Bistra Vassileva and Moti Zwilling 223 Facing the challenges of hybrid warfare, a combined methodology of trainin g and ed – ucation should be applied , and it should be able to: (1) develop cognitive skills; (2) provide situational knowledge; (3) stimulate critical thinking. Under these conditions e , but a way of encouraging initia – tive, creativity and responsibility for the decisions which are taken. Research suggests that hybridity of war requests the use of both material and cogni – tive approac hes to warfare, 9 skills) and education (to generate knowledge). The educational requirement is far One of the key skills needed to counteract hybrid war is the spirit of adaptability . 3 In write, discus s , or be engaged in solving problems . 10 Further, students must be en – gaged in such higher – order thinking tasks as analysis, synthesis, and evaluation; they have to be actively involved. Thus , strategies promoting activities that involve stu – dents in doing t hings and thinking about what they are doing may be called active learning. Performing these activities , especially in a team environment , forces stu – dents to take responsibility for their decisions. Simulation – based learning is a form of active and experi ence – based learning (or expe – riential learning). Its distinguishing feature is that the experience of the learner occu – pies central place in all considerations of teaching and learning. This experience may comprise earlier events in the life of the learner, current life events, or those arising from the learner’s participation in activities implemented by teachers and facilitators. A key element of simulation – based learning is that learners analyse their experience by reflecting, evaluating and reconstructing it (sometimes individually, sometimes collectively, sometimes in both ways ) in order to draw meaning from it in the light of prior experience . 15 Sadowski and Becker distinguish betwee n the following two types of learning ap – proaches to warfare: material a nd cognitive. 11 They suggest that the latter should be applied in education in the scope of hybrid warfare. The basic operating assumption of this approach is mind as the key factor in hybrid warfare. It is considered that mind through distraction, deception , deterrence, or dissuasion, disrupts the will of the ad – versary. Effective education in this respect should bypass material assets and focus on mental processes, emotions, feelings, perceptions, behavio u rs, and decisions. 3 A t t ributed to Joseph J. Thomas, director of the Lejeune Leadership Institute, Marine Corps University .

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Hybrid Warfare Sim u lation – based Learning: Challenges and Opportunities 224 A group of authors proposed t hat the beginning of the twenty – first century could be laws of classical physics to the theories of chaos and quantum mechanics. 12, 13 These authors suggest that new sciences provid e the conceptual foundation for a new skill set for decision makers a set of skills that can enable to view conflict from a new perspective, but also to respond to conflict in new ways. This paradigm shift affects the view point to conflicts and respecti vely to the skills required to deal with con – flicts. During the last few years several authors are using quantum theory in their re – search work as a metaphor for the development of a new set of skills aimed at deci – sion makers, called quantum skills. 2 The concept of quantum skills corresponds to the goals of simulation – based learning and will be used by the authors as a cornerstone of their methodological framework to hybrid warfare. 2. Research Methodology The research methodology is divided into three interre lated modules: benchmarking analysis, qualitative study, and quantitative study. Present paper presents the first two modules. Benchmarking is an analytical management technique, which may be used to compare internal performance with the best external per formance to identify strengths and weaknesses. According to Havas , it can reveal good practice that can be replicated and implemented to improve performance beyond previous levels, on a continuous basis. 14 Benchmarking is a learning tool and works best w hen systematically applied. Bessant and Rush reported that benchmarking involves looking at focused core pro – cesses along two key dimensions performance and practice. 15 The performance di – mension in benchmarking can provide the motivation for learning b ecause it identi – fies gaps and differences in performance. But it does not tell anything about how those gaps arose. Practice benchmarking involves looking at how particular processes operate to achieve output performance. On the basis what is compared, Fag eberg identified four types of benchmarking applications, namely strategic benchmarking, performance benchmarking, process benchmarking, and competence benchmarking. 16 The last one is the most recently developed type of benchmarking. Literally, a benchm ark is a standard for comparison and an indicator of past success. According to Dévai, Cahill and Gallagher , 17 it is (i) a reference or measurement standard for comparison; (ii) performance measurement that is the standard of excellence for a process, and (i ii) a measurable, best – in – class achievement. As it was mentioned above, quantum skills are used as a benchmark to build the anat – omy of knowledge areas in the field of hybrid warfare education.

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Bistra Vassileva and Moti Zwilling 225 The qualitative study comprises in – depth interviews and focus group discussions. Five lecturers and three representatives from the IT industry were interviewed using in – depth interviews. Two focus group interviews with students from the Naval Acad – emy and the University of Economics , both in Varna , B u lgaria were conducted. The focus group interviews wer e videotaped. Qualitative methods were chosen to con – struct our methodological framework of simulation – based learning environment of counter – hybrid warfare. Two focus groups of six students each were selected to in – clude male and female students. Age was not a factor taken into consideration when selecting the focus groups. Three key areas were identified following the analysis of the qualitative data gathered at focus groups and in – depth interviews, namely attitudes (incl uding awareness), be – havio u rs, and structu res/systems which are interrelated in a form of triangle. themselves. These can be positive or negative, but in violent conflict actors or parties tend to develop positive a nd negative misperceptions also known as enemy imag – ing . Behaviours can include cooperation or coercion, gestures signifying conciliation or hostility. Violent conflict behaviour is characterised by threats, coercion and destruc – tive attacks. Co – operative behaviours could include: recognition of rights of the op – ponent, recognition of the existence of the opponent, recognition of the right of a people to live in peace and security, etc. Structures/ systems refer to the political, economic, societal, etc. me chanisms, pro – cesses and institutions that influence the distribution and satisfaction of basic needs and interests of people, which include physical and military security, economic secu – rity, societal security and ecological security. 3. Methodological Framework of Simulation – based Learning Environ – ment Countering Hybrid Warfare 3.1. Teaching Methodologies for Hybrid Warfare . Anatomy of Knowledge Areas Quantum skills concept is used as a benchmark to specify the knowledge areas which are applicable to hybr id warfare education (SIM4hWarfare). A summary of these are – as is provided in Table 1.

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Bistra Vassileva and Moti Zwilling 227 Quantum knowing The ability to know intuitively Quantum knowing is the ability to connect in non – sensory ways with information in this quantum field of potentiality. Langer research (theory of mindful decision making) suggests that gathering information does not necessarily lead to better decisions 21 To avoid positivistic paradigm (positivistic, reductionistic, mechanistic thinking) in knowledge creation. Teaching tools which enable: developing intuitive knowing as much as rational analysis to develop internal intuition to t rain the process of discovering highly creative solutions to the most difficult challenges Accelerated Learning techniques could be applied Quantum acting The ability to act responsibly Quantum acting is the ability to act with concern for the whole (th e whole self, the whole organization, the whole society, and the whole planet). i.e. the quantum concept of interconnectivity. The quantum principle of non – separability puts a new perspective on social responsibility in decision making. This skill can be us ed to design lives of impeccable actions that focus on intentions that are good for both self and for the larger system. Using the skill of quantum acting leads people to choose to make responsible choices. Responsible choice also mandates a commitment to making managerial choices ever more conscious. Quantum trusting The ability to process It is derived from chaos theory. Strange attractors provide managers with visual images of a world in which structure emerges out of chaos. To develop skil ls which enable managers to ride the rapids of conflict without attempting to actively manage the course of resolution. By practising this skill people become less intent on manipulating the world and more intent on simply appreciating it. This allows self – organization to occur.

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Hybrid Warfare Sim u lation – based Learning: Challenges and Opportunities 228 Quantum being The ability to be in relationship This skill recognizes the relational nature of the universe. To develop the ability to see eyes which is a prerequisite to win – win conflict resolution. Source: Adapted from Darling, 12 Darling and Fogliasso, 22 Shelton, 13 and Shelton . 23 The following steps are proposed in order to elaborate the abovementioned knowledge areas: Step 1: Analy s e academic content standards . Academic content experts should be trained to use the SIM4hWarfare system and re – lated tools. T here should be at least two experts in each area, given the need for dis – cussion on applicability of specific taxonomy items. Step 2: Identify the related academic skills required for competent performance in the occupation. Step 3: Crosswalk the skills a nd knowledge = Step 4: Develop contextual statements that bring together the academic content standards and occupational skills standards using real life examples. unce – based learning as a tool to develop applied competences. Mission (Figure 1) is defined as an assignment which requires a practical completion of a task or a sequence of tasks based on a certain knowledge . Missions are accompanied by clear instructions and a feedback form. The feedback form is used for validation and it serves as an assessment tool thus provid – ing transparency and creating a competitive environment among students. The mission – based methodology flows from the initial mission to the completion of the final mission. The methodology allows for mission re – ordering depending on de – sired learning outcomes. 3.2. Process Model of Simulation – based Learning Environment The final goal of the proposed phase model of simulation – based learning environment is to create competent hybrid combatants. In the begi ning of the process students/ ning which includes training how to read instructions (of the missions), how to follow instructions, and how to report. The process itself (Figure 2) combines knowledge development, creativity stimula – tion, innovativeness encouragement, and intuition.

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Bistra Vassileva and Moti Zwilling 229 Figure 1: Mission as a core component in simulation – based learning . The f ocus is placed on developing the following three groups of skills. First, cogni – tive skills which require capability to cope with difficulties provoked by hybrid war – fare. These skills are recognized as the main human capabilities, as it requires mental agil ity and tolerance for ambiguity or uncertainty to recognize or quickly adapt to the unknown. Second, decision – making skills, especially to understand the true areas of disagreement (conflict) which contribute to solving the right problems and manage the tr ue needs of the parties. Third, tactical abilities. These skills as a background for quantum skills development could be achieved by applying the OODA (Observation Orientation Decision Action) framework . 5 Observation is the means by which one collects/registers information about the state of the external world and corresponds to the key area of structures/systems. Orienta – tion comprises the internal processes by which observations are compared with prior knowledge and experience to update an understanding of the world. It corresponds to the key area of attitudes. Decision is the internal process by which various tentative solutions are assessed and one selected for action. Action is the process by which t he internally constructed solution is applied to the world. It corresponds to the key area of behavio u r. 3.3. Research methodology Based on SIM4hWarfare conceptual model the following research methodology is proposed (Figure 3).

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