Jun 10, 2020 — The Makings of a Multibagger (“report”) is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer or.
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An Analysis of the Best Performing Stocks over the Past 5 Years The Alta Fox 2020 Summer Intern Class Project: Owen Stimpson – [email protected] Max Schieferdecker – [email protected] Elizabeth DeSouza – [email protected] The Makings of a Multibagger
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Disclaimer 2 g s ecurities and other financial instruments. The Makings of a Multibagger is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell an interest in a private fund or any other security. An offer or solicitation of an investment in a private fund will only be made to accredited investors pursuant to a private placement memorandum and associated documents. The information and opinions expres sed in this report are based on publicly available information. The report includes forward – looking statements, estimates, projections, and opinions on various securities, as well as more general conclusions about future operating performance. Such statements, estimates, projections, opinions, and conclu sio ns may prove to be h A lta Fox believes the report is substantially accurate in all material respects, Alta Fox makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the acc uracy or completeness of this report or any other written or oral communication it makes with respect to any company in this report, and Alta Fox expressly di sclaims any liability relating to the report or such communications (or any inaccuracies or omissions therein). Thus, shareholders and others shoul d c onduct their own independent investigation and analysis of the report and any securities mentioned. Except where otherwise indicated, the report speaks as of the date hereof, and Alta Fox undertakes no obligation to correct, update, or revise the report or to otherwise provide any additional ma terials. Furthermore, the report was created by interns who are not full – time employees of Alta Fox. It is possible their views are not consistent with th e views and beliefs of Alta Fox Capital Management, LLC. Alta Fox also undertakes no commitment to take or refrain from taking any action with respect to an y company listed in the report. Additional information about Alta Fox can be found on its website, www. altafoxcapital.com, the use of which is subje ct to a User Agreement, which can be found at www. altafoxcapital.com/disclaimer.
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Table of Contents Project Overview Our Approach o Criteria for Company Selection o Our Process Overview of Companies Analyzed o Industry Representation o Geographic Representation o Stock Exchange Representation Company Metrics o Size of the Companies o Financial Metrics What Led to their Outperformance o TSR Drivers o EBITDA and Revenue Growth o Valuation Multiples Concluding Thoughts o High – Level Takeaways o Specific Takeaways Individual Company Analysis o Table of Contents o Analysis 4 5 – 6 7 – 9 10 – 11 12 – 17 18 19 20 – 645 Section Page Numbers Sub – Section Page Numbers 0 0 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 13 14 – 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 – 645 3
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Project Overview 4 What We Did Analyzed the highest performing stocks over the last five years and identified their common characteristics, trends, and catalysts Why We Did It To identify strategies to find the next set of high performing stocks How We Did It Researched the business of each company individually using a standardized 6 – page slide deck format Compiled quantitative and qualitative data from all companies, analyzed it, and then drew conclusions based on it What We Concluded Drew 5 high – level takeaways and a framework to screen for future multibaggers Back to ToC
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Criteria for Selection 104 We analyzed the 104 smallest stocks (market cap below 10B) of the 130 returned from the screen because of our small and micro – cap focus. 1. Only stocks domiciled in North America, Western Europe , and Australia. 2. All sectors excluding energy, materials, and financials. 3. Total Shareholder Return (TSR) from 6/8/2015 to 6/8/2020 greater that 350%. 4. Positive t railing 12 – month EBITDA. 5. Market Cap at 6/8/2020 was greater than 150M USD and less than 10B USD. 6. Average daily value traded over 200,000 USD . 7. The latest fiscal year y/y revenue growth was positive. 8. The stock is actively being traded and it is the primary security of the given company. We used Bloomberg to screen for stocks that met the following criteria: 5 Back to ToC
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Our Process For each company we determined what the key takeaways were and our Takeaways We surmised a bear case and/or why the company was overlooked five years ago i.e. minimal room for growth, poor competitive position, high valuation, lack of coverage, etc. and outlined why it turned out be wrong. Why the stock was overlooked five years ago Business and Industry Overview For each stock we did the following: Financial Snapshot Stock price, market cap, enterprise value, and shares outstanding today and five years ago NTM revenue, EBITDA, and earnings multiples five years ago and today Company Overview Sales breakdown by segment and geography Industry Overview Industry in which the company competes Industry structure Low – single digits (LSD), mid – single digits (MSD), high – single digits (HSD), or > 10% industry growth rate Barriers to entry and competitive advantages How the industry has evolved over the last five years We also calculated what drove TSR: EBITDA growth, dividends, and/or multiple expansion. 6 Back to ToC
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Geographic Representation We looked at companies headquartered in North America, Western Europe, and Australia. Country Breakdown Continental Breakdown 32.69% 55.77% 11.54% North America Western Europe Australia 11.5% 15.4% 28.8% 9.6% 12.5% 7.7% Australia UK US Canada Germany Sweden France Norway Ireland Denmark Austria Switzerland Luxembourg While many great opportunities are found in NA, investors seeking the best opportunities will need to be open to intercontinental companies. Relative to Investable Universe 1 1 All stocks which meet screen criteria not including minimum TSR of 350% % of Total % of Set US 44.1% 28.8% UK 10.0% 15.4% Sweden 8.7% 12.5% Australia 5.1% 11.5% Germany 4.8% 9.6% Norway 2.7% 7.7% Canada 5.3% 3.8% France 4.1% 2.9% Denmark 1.7% 5.2% Ireland 0.8% 1% Austria 0.4% 1% Luxembourg 0.3% 1% The US is actually under – represented with 29% of the set but making up 44% of the total universe. Australia, UK, Sweden, Germany, and Norway are notably over – represented. Italy, Switzerland, and Spain are notably excluded with no top performers but are apart of the universe 8 Relative to Investable Universe 1 % of Total % of Set North America 49.56% 32.69% Western Europe 45.31% 55.77% Australia 5.13% 11.54% Over – Represented Under – Represented Back to ToC
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Stock Exchange Representation The best performers were found on 15 different stock exchanges across North America, Europe, and Australia. The majority of companies were found on these three exchanges: 21.15% 1 1 Accounts for NASDAQCM, NASDAQGM, and NASDAQGS 13.46% 12.50% 2 But there were 12 other exchanges represented on the list as well: 9.62% 1.92% 5 7.69% 3.85% 2.88% 11.54% 6.73% 3 3.85% 4 1.92% 0.96% 0.96% 0.96% 2 NASDAQ Stockholm 3 Accounts for both normal NYSE and AMEX stocks 4 Accounts for both normal TSX and TSXV 5 NASDAQ Copenhagen 9 Back to ToC
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Nano-Cap (< $50M) Micro-Cap ($50M - $300M) Small-Cap ($300M - $2B) Mid-Cap ($2B - $10B) Large-Cap (> $10B) Average 1855% 682% 590% 459% 413% Median 1114% 508% 431% 414% 403% 0% 500% 1000% 1500% 2000% TSR % TSR Breakdown 27 44 36 17 4 0 17 51 36 24 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Nano-Cap (< $50M) Micro-Cap ($50M - $300M) Small-Cap ($300M - $2B) Mid-Cap ($2B - $10B) Large-Cap (> $10B) Number of Stocks Stock Category Company Sizes Size of the Companies While some large companies were included in the set, smaller companies were represented more often and returned larger TSRs o n average. Investors need to be willing to look at small, under looked, and under covered stocks to find some of the biggest winners: But with that said, many companies with >1B market caps outperformed as well: 10 Back to ToC
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Financial Metrics Gross Margin FY 2015 FY 2019 Change 25 th Percentile 30.42% 31.69% 127 bps 50 th Percentile 46.40% 49.19% 279 bps 75 th Percentile 61.39% 66.68% 529 bps 11 35 16 26 11 11 5 20 9 25 21 14 15 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 < $50M $50M - $100M $100M - $250M $250M - $500M $500M - $1B > $1B Number of Companies Revenue Revenue Breakdown 15 20 16 13 25 15 1 6 7 9 39 42 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 < $0M $0M - $5M $5M - $10M $10M - $15M $15M - $50M > $50M Number of Companies EBITDA EBITDA Breakdown EBITDA Margin FY 2015 FY 2019 Change 25 th Percentile 4.75% 11.43% 668 bps 50 th Percentile 10.22% 17.75% 753 bps 75 th Percentile 17.88% 27.16% 928 bps SG&A Percentage FY 2015 FY 2019 Change 25 th Percentile 53.57% 45.11% – 846 bps 50 th Percentile 34.43% 30.27% – 416 bps 75 th Percentile 16.30% 14.35% – 195 bps Back to ToC
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